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Strait of Hormuz
The Myth of the ‘Escalation Trap’
Robert Pape has emerged as a star commentator on the Iran war. Is his signature idea hokum?
April 28, 2026
Eli Lake
Iran Is Drowning in Its Own Oil
Without the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian regime is running out of places to store oil, and it could have disastrous consequences.
April 28, 2026
Amit Segal
The Ayatollah’s Waiting Game
The Iranian regime can’t afford Trump’s blockade. It’s praying America blinks first.
April 23, 2026
Amit Segal
Niall Ferguson: The Gap Between Truth (Social) and Reality on Iran
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the economic costs of the war keep mounting. Yet markets are trading like the war is over. The wisdom of crowds…
April 20, 2026
Niall Ferguson
Trump’s Iran Blockade Is Functioning—But Will It Work?
U.S. ships are making sure that if Iran won’t let world commerce pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian commerce can’t either. Will this…
April 15, 2026
Aaron MacLean
Iran Needs the Strait of Hormuz More Than Anyone
Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would blockade the strait could take the last card out of Tehran’s hand.
April 13, 2026
Zineb Riboua
Trump’s Madman Act Delivers in Iran
Now that Trump has postponed his threat to end Iranian civilization, America has won twice. Here’s why.
April 8, 2026
Eli Lake
After the Ceasefire
The military scenarios now that the deadline has been moved back.
April 7, 2026
Aaron MacLean
Tyler Cowen: Why Oil Price Spikes Could Spark a Global Recession
The U.S. is insulated from some oil price shocks, but not from a global downturn.
April 3, 2026
Tyler Cowen
The Battle of Hormuz Approaches
What are the possible scenarios for the troops currently being deployed to Iran?
March 31, 2026
Aaron MacLean
Niall Ferguson: This Is How the Iran War Goes Global
As Trump sends the Marines to the Strait of Hormuz, he is opening strategic opportunities for China and Russia. Other choke points may soon be at risk.
March 16, 2026
Niall Ferguson
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