It’s Monday, May 11. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Aidan Stretch breaks down the three-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Will Rahn on why Trump’s long-awaited UFO files release raises more questions than it answers. Tyler Cowen on why the economy keeps defying expectations. And more.
But first: Spencer Pratt is surging. Could he actually win?
There’s “long-shot outsider,” and then there’s Spencer Pratt.
On January 7, the former star of reality TV show The Hills announced he was running for mayor of Los Angeles. It was a year to the day since he and his parents lost their homes in the Palisades fire, and the anger that had fueled a fight to help local families after the blaze would now be channeled into a bid for the biggest political job in America’s second-biggest city.
At first, his campaign seemed like an interesting sideshow to an all-too-familiar race between unpopular incumbent Karen Bass and the usual cast of Democrats. But in recent weeks, Pratt has emerged as a serious contender, and arguably the most interesting political candidate in the country right now. His campaign videos are going viral, he took the debate stage by storm last week, and he is rising in the polls and surging in prediction markets.
So: Can Spencer Pratt really win? And what does it say about Los Angeles—and California—that the Democratic party machine is now in a fight with a former reality TV star and registered Republican who was, until recently, happily running a crystal jewelry business with his wife? For answers to those questions, we turn to Peter Savodnik. He spoke to Pratt and the other movers and shakers in LA politics to make sense of Pratt-mania and what it says about his hometown. Don’t miss his piece.
—Oliver Wiseman
President Trump announced last week that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange, stretching from Saturday through Monday. Over the weekend, Vladimir Putin said the war could be “coming to an end.” Is peace around the corner? And how did we get here? Aidan Stretch reports from Kyiv on one part of that story: how Ukraine found battlefield success without much support from Washington. Read Aidan on how Ukraine is taking control of its own destiny.
On May 8, President Trump released the first set of declassified UFO files, free for all Americans to view. But just what exactly are smart people meant to think about all this? For the past several months, Will Rahn has been investigating that question, speaking with numerous UFO whistleblowers, skeptics, and enthusiasts. Today, with the help of many of those experts, he breaks down what the new files tell us about the existence of extraterrestrial life—and why the release has raised more questions than it answers.
The U.S. is at war and oil prices have skyrocketed—yet the stock market has been on a historic tear. How can that be? Tyler Cowen breaks it all down, and says that it’s far better to listen to the market than the prognostications of political commentators.
Most people with strong opinions about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have never heard of the Arab Revolt of 1936–1939. But according to historian and political analyst Oren Kessler, it’s the moment when the modern conflict took shape. Kessler wrote an acclaimed book about the episode, Palestine 1936, and this week on Conversations with Coleman, he takes a deep dive into what that period teaches us about one of today’s most fraught debates. Don’t miss this discussion if you want to understand the roots of today’s instability.
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THE NEWS
Tehran presented its response to the United States’ peace proposal this weekend, according to Iranian state media. On Sunday, Trump said the proposal was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” without offering further details. The back-and-forth comes as scattered attacks across the Middle East cast doubt on the temporary ceasefire.
On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with Qatari prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Miami to discuss an end to the war with Iran. The meeting was unexpected, as Al Thani was supposed to return to Doha after meeting with Vice President J.D. Vance in Washington on Friday.
Virginia Democrats are launching an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court after the state Supreme Court struck down their redistricting plan on Friday. In a statement, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said that his party plans to fight the decision “no matter what it takes.” (For more on the redistricting wars, read Charles Lane’s “Virginia Failed the Basic Test of Our Democracy.”)
President Trump is set to meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing this week. The two-day summit will begin Thursday, where the two world leaders will discuss the war in Iran, trade policy, Taiwan, and more.
The MV Hondius cruise ship began its evacuation process in Spain’s Canary Islands on Sunday after suffering a hantavirus outbreak on board. The ship carried about 150 passengers and crew, three of whom died from the deadly virus. (For more on this, read Jillian Lederman’s ”Nothing Can Sink the Cruise Ship.”)
New data from 67 major U.S. law-enforcement agencies show violent crime rates plunging across major categories in many of America’s biggest cities. The new numbers add to a sustained national decline in violent crime since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Time for LA to decide if it wants to continue to move towards third world status. If so may its tonier neighborhoods strive to be more diverse equitable and inclusive. And I mean that in a literal sense, block by block.
The problem with statistics is they mislead. In the UK we also have this attempt by the Govt/Mayor of London to lie to us that violent crime must be down as the murder rate is similar to what it was in the 50s. What they intentionally ignore is the huge improvement in medical care. It has been estimated that if medical care had not improved since the 50s then the murder rate would be 5-6 times what it was in the 50s.
We all know in our hearts and eyes that the Govt is lying about lots of crime data but most people don't know how they are. In this case we do.