It’s Monday, April 7. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large.
Coming up: Pittsburgh steelworkers and Garment District small business owners react to the coming economic uncertainty; the disappointments of “Dying for Sex”; and more.
But first, Niall Ferguson and Victor Davis Hanson on Tariffmageddon.
The End of the American Empire—or a Just Trade War?
It’s been five days since Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” and the news has not stopped. The president’s “declaration of economic independence” will raise U.S. tariffs to the highest level in more than a century and amount to the largest tax increase on the American people since 1968.
Here’s what has happened since the president shocked the world on Wednesday afternoon:
More than $6 trillion was wiped from U.S. equities on Thursday and Friday in the largest two-day loss in shareholder value on record.
Wall Street economists have slashed their growth forecasts and say the chances of a recession have increased significantly. “There Will Be Blood,” warned JPMorgan’s head of economic research, as he raised the chances of a global recession from 40 percent to 60 percent.
Beijing responded to “Liberation Day” by imposing a 34 percent tariff on all U.S. imports.
Trump’s 10 percent “baseline” tariff on all imports came into effect Saturday, and country-specific tariffs are set to start Wednesday. On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said they would not be delayed.
More than 50 countries have contacted President Trump’s team to start tariff negotiations, according to Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council.
As of Sunday night, stock futures indicated another brutal day ahead on Wall Street on Monday.
Today in the pages of The Free Press, two leading historians put the tariffs—and the tumult they have triggered—in context. And they draw very different conclusions.
Up first, Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson.
You probably understand the recent chaos one of two ways, writes Niall.
“Either a committed protectionist is trying to Make America Great Again by killing ‘globalism,’ ending ‘forever wars,’ and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States.” Or “an unhinged demagogue is crashing both the world economy and the liberal international order, mainly to the benefit of authoritarian regimes.”
But Niall says that what’s really happening is something different—something far, far, bigger. He argues we are witnessing nothing less than the unraveling of Pax Americana.
“The American empire that came into existence after the failed autarky and isolationism of the 1930s is being broken up after 80 years. Despite Trump’s imperial impulses—wanting to annex Greenland, calling for Canada to become the 51st state—he is engaged right now in a kind of wild decolonization project.”
Read Niall Ferguson on “Trump’s Tariffs and the End of American Empire.”
Fellow historian Victor Davis Hanson sees things rather differently.
Writing in The Free Press today, Victor explains why he thinks the panic of the last few days will come to be remembered as a hysterical overreaction. There’s a logic to Trump’s tariffs, he argues. And it’s one that too many previous administrations have ignored.
So what is the thinking behind Trump’s trade war? Why has it incurred such invective? And why is he prepared to take a political risk to fix trade imbalances in a way that no prior Republican dared?
Victor argues that what the president is doing is no less than trying to end a 50-year injustice directed at the U.S.—and help the most overlooked Americans.
This is a must-read if you want to understand the steelman case for what the president is doing.
Read Victor Davis Hanson on “Donald Trump’s Just Trade War.”
United Steelworkers Are Divided over Trump’s Tariffs
You might think that steelworkers would be over the moon about Trump’s tariff package, but as Ethan Dodd reports, this politically important, pro-Trump constituency is surprisingly ambivalent. As Richard Tikey, the vice president of USW Local 1557, tells Ethan, “They’re jacking up the price. So with interest rates higher, inflation’s high, where does the working man make out with that?”
Read “What Do American Steelworkers Think About Trump’s Tariffs?”
Garment District Owners “Panicked” over Trump’s Tariffs
For another perspective on what Trump’s tariffs will mean for the U.S. economy, Free Press reporter Olivia Reingold went to Manhattan’s Garment District. She spoke to small business owners in the import-dependent apparel industry, and let’s just say they’re not exactly feeling liberated. “It’s scary, it’s scary—you don’t want to get a panic attack,” said Raj Arora, an Indian immigrant who runs Bazar Fabrics. “The best thing is to take it easy. I cannot think about it 24/7.”
Read “Garment District Owners: Trump’s Tariffs ‘Going to Be a Killer’. ”
In ‘Dying for Sex,’ Men Are Eternally Disappointing
Read Kat Rosenfield on a much-hyped, deeply pessimistic new Hulu show.
Catch Our New Livestreams!
Paid subscribers can now join livestream chats with our reporters, subjects, and columnists to get our take on the biggest stories of the day.
Last week, we hosted two conversations: Bari spoke to our new columnist Tyler Cowen on what “Liberation Day” means for the American consumer and the world. And Frannie Block met with the father of a young boy who was smeared as a hate criminal in a 2022 case that turned out to be a cry for help. Both conversations were recorded, so paid subscribers can enjoy every minute.
If you’re not one already, now is the time to upgrade (you can do so by clicking right here!) to watch the following:
Bari Weiss and Tyler Cowen on Tariffs, AI, China, and More
Frannie Block Discusses How a Town Turned a Child’s ‘Cry for Help’ Into a Hate Crime
Elon Musk said Saturday he hopes for a “zero tariff situation” between the United States and Europe, in an apparent break with Donald Trump. On X, Musk made some less-than-flattering comments about Trump trade adviser and arch-protectionist Peter Navarro. On Sunday, Navarro said that Musk “doesn’t understand” how other countries cheat the U.S. on trade, but insisted there was no rift between Musk and the administration.
Is the #Resistance back? Protesters rallied against the Trump administration across the country Saturday. Organizers said that at least 1,300 “Hands Off” rallies were planned by more than 150 groups in all 50 states, and that they wanted the focus to be on pocketbook issues.
In a sign that God has a sense of humor, Trump’s dismantling of the global economic order has coincided with the departure of one of the most vocal cheerleaders of globalization—and bogeyman to the populist right—World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab. The Davos circus master announced on Thursday that he’d “start the process” of stepping down as chair of the group’s board of trustees.
On Sunday, newly minted health secretary RFK Jr., who has been blamed by some for the surge in vaccine skepticism in America, went to the funeral of an 8-year-old girl who died of measles. The child, who was unvaccinated and reportedly had no underlying conditions, died at a Lubbock, Texas, hospital on Thursday, and is the second confirmed case of a person in the U.S. succumbing to the disease in a decade. Nearly 500 cases have been reported since the outbreak in West Texas in January, with cases spreading to Oklahoma and New Mexico. “My intention was to come down here quietly to console the families and to be with the community in their moment of grief,” Kennedy posted on X of his visit, adding that “the most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine.” In the past, RFK Jr. has hinted that the MMR shot may have led to a rise in autism, based on one widely debunked study. The CDC, under Kennedy, has started expanding its research into possible links between autism and vaccines.
Has the mystery at the heart of Signalgate been solved? Ever since Jeffrey Goldberg published his extraordinary account of being a fly on the wall in a groupchat as the nation’s top security officials coordinated an air strike on Yemen two weeks ago, it’s been unclear how exactly National Security Adviser Mike Waltz wound up adding the editor of The Atlantic to the conversation. The latest theory, courtesy of The Guardian, is that Goldberg’s number was inadvertently saved under the name of National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes. The White House claims the confusion happened because Waltz’s iPhone automatically and erroneously suggested he “update” Hughes’ number. In other words, don’t blame Waltz. Blame Siri.
In the Oval Office on Thursday, far-right 9/11 truther Laura Loomer reportedly provided Donald Trump with a list of White House national security figures she believed were disloyal to the president. By the end of the day, six National Security Council officials were out of a job. Trump later called Loomer a “great patriot” and denied the firings had anything to do with the meeting.
Alex Ovechkin surpassed Wayne Gretzky to become the greatest scorer in NHL history on Sunday. Gretzky was in attendance to witness the record-setting 895th goal scored by the Washington Capitals veteran in a game against the New York Islanders. “I was really happy for him. I felt like I scored the goal,” Gretzky said. In other sports news, the University of Connecticut women’s basketball team won its 12th national championship with an easy 82–59 victory over the University of South Carolina. It was UConn’s 16th Final Four appearance in the last 17 years—but “only” its first championship since 2016.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this digest stated that “Dying for Sex” appears on Netflix when, in fact, it is a Hulu show. The Free Press regrets the error.
When President Nixon courted cheap manufacturing in China, we had a disaster. We closed factories in the Midwest and the South, throwing millions of US citizens out of work and onto unemployment.
At the time, I thought this was especially shortsighted. China subsidized manufacturing in China and US companies lapped this up.
Did China play fair? No! They flooded our country with shoddy goods.
We are now reaping the other half of the equation. We need to bring jobs back to the USA. We can do it!
At least China can't steal our technology unless we let it. Keep the industrial spies out of our universities and let's make our country bigger and better.
It is an existential battle between Main Street and the Masters of Beltway and Brussels. And, the latter always win.
FP authors fail to see we lost for the time being our imbecile Potus, and the Beltway foreign "salvation" policy of missle-ing a new handful of countries every year with death, destruction, peace corps volunteers, buying up all the media and parachuting in a thousand Hunter Bidens to suck the survivors dry (not necessarily in that order)..
The last Biden year to finance above, the US had debt to GNP nearly double South Africa (Yes, South Africa) according to Trading Economics. The dead beat borrowers will be back in control soon. The authors need to forget the hysteria.