The overturning of Roe v Wade screwed the Republicans. Most Americans are ok with early term abortions. Being staunchly pro-life is a gift to the Democrats They'll keep power and get their pro-choice agenda, anyway.
The overturning of Roe v Wade screwed the Republicans. Most Americans are ok with early term abortions. Being staunchly pro-life is a gift to the Democrats They'll keep power and get their pro-choice agenda, anyway.
Just as most moderate Dems hold their noses and uphold the 2nd Amendment (at least publicly), a right is a right, after all - moderate Republicans will have to come to terms with the obvious fact that most American women view some access to abortion a reproductive right. When that right was taken away in many states, the GOP utterly failed to address it.
It was not in the GOP's purview to address it. This must be handled by each individual state. Let the Democrats continue their Culture War if they must, but in the end, the people in each state will decide - not the political parties.
I'm talking about Republicans in those very same individual states. Oz really blew it when he said abortion was between the woman, her doctor, and her local politician (I'm paraphrasing). Yikes!
Walker? He's pro-life apparently, but practiced (allegedly) abortion for years. Why would the GOP pick a jerk like him??
At the local level in House races and Senate ones Republicans didn't bother to pivot and get on top of what they had to know was a high rising tide of anger in women. They already had the Kansas referendum result to go by. You don't have to be a campaign manager to figure out there had to be a response.
The polls and candidates that did well do not validate this hypothesis of yours. Independents that migrated to the Dems were not motivated by Roe V Wade. Only die hard Dems have abortion anywhere close to the top 5 priorities driving their voting patterns.
EDIT I've just seen some polls from WSJ. Ben Shapiro talked about it in his podcast. Apparently independents listed abortion at 17% in terms of importance. That is high enough to make a difference in elections.
Wow. I've never seen abortion ranked so high. Many commentators on this board were quite confident abortion would not flip the election to dems. We all need to revisit our priors
Yes, we all know there are a lot of people who want to ban abortion. Assuming everyone who voted red was doing so because they wanted to ban abortion is a huge mistake. Pro-lifers hamstrung the Republicans, gave more power to Dems who will now make abortion the law of the land anyway. The expectation was that there would be a red wave as Dems have completely ruined the economy, rule of law, suppressed basic civil rights based on racism and anti-science, while continually promoting brain-damaged candidates. The Dems should have been wiped out but weren't because most people very against completely banning abortion.
Well I never said that all Republicans wanted to ban it but you bring up a very good point. It sometimes seems that would be the de facto law of the land if the GOP had total control. All eyes on Florida now.
I've just seen some polls from WSJ. Ben Shapiro talked about it in his podcast. Apparently independents listed abortion at 17% in terms of importance. That is high enough to make a difference in elections.
I think some of the uncertainty about abortion was exacerbated by new candidates, the overall tenor of the GOP, the mixed messaging from people like Lindsay Graham pushing federal abortion bans, and the fact that some states did in fact ban abortions.
I think the Republicans could certainly have handled the Roe publicity better. A few ads highlighting what the decision was really about, vis ├а vis what the Democrats say it was about, might have softened the impact.
re: Trump. The winds are shifting for me. Whether fair or not, he is damaged goods. At least 90% has been done by outside forces - and truly inappropriately - but at least 10% he has done himself by not being able to control his mouth. That, and the fact that DeSantis is available as an alternative, seems to be well-bolted-together, savvy, and extremely bright, is giving me second thoughts about trying to ram Trump through again.
Jim, I think you and I come from two different sides of the ideological spectrum, but I agree with you.
I will say that I see the upcoming dynamic in the GOP as a zero sum game. By which I mean more DeSantis means less Trump. And if Republicans want to see victory on the main stage in 24 - they must get rid of Trump. He's just too toxic. Go with DeSantis.
For my part, I was an Independent before Sanctuary Cities for illegal criminal aliens and Transing children with the Unicorn Cult (talk about ideology). That sent me to the GOP but many of them are lame on these issues. Trump was not but his time has passed. I don't think it's really a matter of "getting rid of Trump" (which has been all people talk about where I live since before he took office in 2016). This bit with the Democrats trying to jail him or something tends to make voters angry. It really should be dropped.
After the midterms it's clear that DeSantis is the one who has it. I expect there will be a noisy primary and then DeSantis will emerge as the Republican candidate.
Here is a fun Bablylon Bee which always illustrates reality better than "serious news":
"Selfish DeSantis Takes Entire Red Wave For Himself"
And, if Democrats want to win in '24 they'd better drop pushing Radical Gender Theory in schools. DeSantis will not be timid on that one. When school administrators turned to "including pronouns" in their bios and email signatures it did constitute coming for our children. See:
"ItтАЩs wrong to play the transgender pronoun game"
DeSantis gave an amazing acceptance speech after an incredible victory. I think all the mojo just transferred to him. I'd like to see him do for the country what he did for Florida. He was unafraid to communicate and carry out good policies - while most of the rest of the pack were still calling Bruce Jenner "she", locking down their states, letting the corporations and school unions run them... I think he gets the Republican nomination after a noisy primary. Imagine a Biden v. DeSantis election? The Dems might be stuck with Biden as their candidate now after this mid term election.
I really hope you're right. I don't think it's impossible for Republicans to choose DeSantis, I just see Trump running as an independent and stealing votes DeSantis will need. Without Trump or abortion in the way, DeSantis dominates. The good news is Democrats are showing no signs of regaining their sanity.
Couldn't agree more. Even Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsbery - a Goddess in the Liberal World - stated that Roe was 'bad law' and expected it to be shot down. It was never articulated. And let's face it most people don't really understand how the law works (Constitution, etc).
Re: Trump - I am feeling the shifting winds as well - I used to like his fierce motor-mouth. But he has trangressed the 'Reagan Rule' of never say a bad thing about another Republican. And that's a simple and smart rule to follow. Maybe Trump's anger and ego just can't let go. That said, I will NEVER vote for a Democrat again given the shenanigans that occurred during his Presidency. The Democrats made a mockery of our country, made us a true Banana Republic. I will never vote Democrat again.
Trump lost me the moment he said "Ron DeSanctimonious". The leadership and victory of DeSantis in Florida is what will be remembered.
I agree with you that the R party did not manage to articulate the issues surrounding abortion well. They could have run ads with RBG saying Roe was "bad law" - and said that you can simply be anti "abortion" at like 9 months which most people are.
Trump lost me in disparaging DeSantis as well. He broke the 'Reagan Rule' - never speak ill of another Republican....Trump is 'feeling' like toast, burnt toast.
I agree - although I wouldn't take it as far as the 'Reagan Rule'. I wouldn't mind a swipe at fake Republicans like Liz Cheney for instance. I don't like that Democrats stick with each other even in the face of terrible agendas like transing children. But, disparaging DeSantis?1??!
Cheney clearly is a RINO at this point. She's toast for sure. I've heard she's going to take up cattle-wrangling ЁЯдг it's easier than getting her Congressional Committee to heel. Democrats - have no sense of humor which they have been demonstrating for over a decade now (SNL RIP)...it's not clear they stick with each other. Abigail Spangler would have choked AOC if no one noticed!
Agreed. Trump is likely the other reason there was no red wave. The people who voted for him as the proverbial middle finger in 2016 are over it. The Republican Party needs to grow a pair, tell Trump to Fuck off and convince DeSantis he's the man... which is unlikely.
I was тАУ and I am тАУ a big Trump supporter, but not because he isnтАЩt a boor. He is. My support was primarily for his policies and the fact that he had the intestinal fortitude to call out people who were corrupt. But I am not married to him as a candidate. DeSantis seems to have every bit of TrumpтАЩs cojones without the smug self satisfaction and the tendency to punch down.
The Democrats donтАЩt read and understand the Constitution and how laws are made. Even Ruth Bader Ginsberg thought Roe vs Wade was тАШbad lawтАЩ and should have been struck down. She expected it to happen. Ya didnтАЩt see any тАШRuthтАЩ costumes dancing around on voting day. The youth are ignorant.
Doesn't matter. The people want abortions and conservatives holding their breath, waiting for people to understand the constitution isn't going to help.
Banning abortion is a lost cause that Conservatives will never ever accomplish.
Personally, I don't think states outlawing abortion is as huge of a deal as Libs make it out to be. just go to another state, right? Even just to get an abortion.
My point is that Conservatives clinging to this issue isn't going to stop abortions and is only handing over control of the government to Pro-choice libs. It's dumb.
Agreed - I'd like to think that the country overall will migrate to the European Model - 12 to 15 weeks. The Democrats should be happy with that - they often express the thought that we should be more 'like Sweden' - I am guessing minus the race riots and bombings : )
The overturning of Roe v Wade screwed the Republicans. Most Americans are ok with early term abortions. Being staunchly pro-life is a gift to the Democrats They'll keep power and get their pro-choice agenda, anyway.
Yes, Tom, I agree with you.
Just as most moderate Dems hold their noses and uphold the 2nd Amendment (at least publicly), a right is a right, after all - moderate Republicans will have to come to terms with the obvious fact that most American women view some access to abortion a reproductive right. When that right was taken away in many states, the GOP utterly failed to address it.
It was not in the GOP's purview to address it. This must be handled by each individual state. Let the Democrats continue their Culture War if they must, but in the end, the people in each state will decide - not the political parties.
I disagree, sorry.
I'm talking about Republicans in those very same individual states. Oz really blew it when he said abortion was between the woman, her doctor, and her local politician (I'm paraphrasing). Yikes!
Walker? He's pro-life apparently, but practiced (allegedly) abortion for years. Why would the GOP pick a jerk like him??
At the local level in House races and Senate ones Republicans didn't bother to pivot and get on top of what they had to know was a high rising tide of anger in women. They already had the Kansas referendum result to go by. You don't have to be a campaign manager to figure out there had to be a response.
But there never was.
The polls and candidates that did well do not validate this hypothesis of yours. Independents that migrated to the Dems were not motivated by Roe V Wade. Only die hard Dems have abortion anywhere close to the top 5 priorities driving their voting patterns.
EDIT I've just seen some polls from WSJ. Ben Shapiro talked about it in his podcast. Apparently independents listed abortion at 17% in terms of importance. That is high enough to make a difference in elections.
NBC Exit polls showed:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/exit-polls
Crime (11%)
Abortion (27%)
Inflation (31%)
Gun policy (11%)
Immigration (10%)
Wow. I've never seen abortion ranked so high. Many commentators on this board were quite confident abortion would not flip the election to dems. We all need to revisit our priors
Yes, we all know there are a lot of people who want to ban abortion. Assuming everyone who voted red was doing so because they wanted to ban abortion is a huge mistake. Pro-lifers hamstrung the Republicans, gave more power to Dems who will now make abortion the law of the land anyway. The expectation was that there would be a red wave as Dems have completely ruined the economy, rule of law, suppressed basic civil rights based on racism and anti-science, while continually promoting brain-damaged candidates. The Dems should have been wiped out but weren't because most people very against completely banning abortion.
Well I never said that all Republicans wanted to ban it but you bring up a very good point. It sometimes seems that would be the de facto law of the land if the GOP had total control. All eyes on Florida now.
I've just seen some polls from WSJ. Ben Shapiro talked about it in his podcast. Apparently independents listed abortion at 17% in terms of importance. That is high enough to make a difference in elections.
I think some of the uncertainty about abortion was exacerbated by new candidates, the overall tenor of the GOP, the mixed messaging from people like Lindsay Graham pushing federal abortion bans, and the fact that some states did in fact ban abortions.
I think the Republicans could certainly have handled the Roe publicity better. A few ads highlighting what the decision was really about, vis ├а vis what the Democrats say it was about, might have softened the impact.
re: Trump. The winds are shifting for me. Whether fair or not, he is damaged goods. At least 90% has been done by outside forces - and truly inappropriately - but at least 10% he has done himself by not being able to control his mouth. That, and the fact that DeSantis is available as an alternative, seems to be well-bolted-together, savvy, and extremely bright, is giving me second thoughts about trying to ram Trump through again.
Jim, I think you and I come from two different sides of the ideological spectrum, but I agree with you.
I will say that I see the upcoming dynamic in the GOP as a zero sum game. By which I mean more DeSantis means less Trump. And if Republicans want to see victory on the main stage in 24 - they must get rid of Trump. He's just too toxic. Go with DeSantis.
For my part, I was an Independent before Sanctuary Cities for illegal criminal aliens and Transing children with the Unicorn Cult (talk about ideology). That sent me to the GOP but many of them are lame on these issues. Trump was not but his time has passed. I don't think it's really a matter of "getting rid of Trump" (which has been all people talk about where I live since before he took office in 2016). This bit with the Democrats trying to jail him or something tends to make voters angry. It really should be dropped.
After the midterms it's clear that DeSantis is the one who has it. I expect there will be a noisy primary and then DeSantis will emerge as the Republican candidate.
Here is a fun Bablylon Bee which always illustrates reality better than "serious news":
"Selfish DeSantis Takes Entire Red Wave For Himself"
https://babylonbee.com/news/selfish-desantis-takes-entire-red-wave-for-himself
And, if Democrats want to win in '24 they'd better drop pushing Radical Gender Theory in schools. DeSantis will not be timid on that one. When school administrators turned to "including pronouns" in their bios and email signatures it did constitute coming for our children. See:
"ItтАЩs wrong to play the transgender pronoun game"
https://mercatornet.com/pronouns-game/77649/
I expect lawsuits and a strong moral reckoning but I don't see the Democrats being able to sever their connection:
"As Biden courts LGBTQI+ activists, a lesbian group denounces transgender puberty blockers as тАШtorture and abuseтАЩ"
https://mercatornet.com/as-biden-courts-lgbtqi-activists-a-lesbian-group-denounces-transgender-puberty-blockers-as-torture-and-abuse/81698/
DeSantis gave an amazing acceptance speech after an incredible victory. I think all the mojo just transferred to him. I'd like to see him do for the country what he did for Florida. He was unafraid to communicate and carry out good policies - while most of the rest of the pack were still calling Bruce Jenner "she", locking down their states, letting the corporations and school unions run them... I think he gets the Republican nomination after a noisy primary. Imagine a Biden v. DeSantis election? The Dems might be stuck with Biden as their candidate now after this mid term election.
This is the real story, IMO
I really hope you're right. I don't think it's impossible for Republicans to choose DeSantis, I just see Trump running as an independent and stealing votes DeSantis will need. Without Trump or abortion in the way, DeSantis dominates. The good news is Democrats are showing no signs of regaining their sanity.
Couldn't agree more. Even Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsbery - a Goddess in the Liberal World - stated that Roe was 'bad law' and expected it to be shot down. It was never articulated. And let's face it most people don't really understand how the law works (Constitution, etc).
Re: Trump - I am feeling the shifting winds as well - I used to like his fierce motor-mouth. But he has trangressed the 'Reagan Rule' of never say a bad thing about another Republican. And that's a simple and smart rule to follow. Maybe Trump's anger and ego just can't let go. That said, I will NEVER vote for a Democrat again given the shenanigans that occurred during his Presidency. The Democrats made a mockery of our country, made us a true Banana Republic. I will never vote Democrat again.
Trump lost me the moment he said "Ron DeSanctimonious". The leadership and victory of DeSantis in Florida is what will be remembered.
I agree with you that the R party did not manage to articulate the issues surrounding abortion well. They could have run ads with RBG saying Roe was "bad law" - and said that you can simply be anti "abortion" at like 9 months which most people are.
Trump lost me in disparaging DeSantis as well. He broke the 'Reagan Rule' - never speak ill of another Republican....Trump is 'feeling' like toast, burnt toast.
I agree - although I wouldn't take it as far as the 'Reagan Rule'. I wouldn't mind a swipe at fake Republicans like Liz Cheney for instance. I don't like that Democrats stick with each other even in the face of terrible agendas like transing children. But, disparaging DeSantis?1??!
Cheney clearly is a RINO at this point. She's toast for sure. I've heard she's going to take up cattle-wrangling ЁЯдг it's easier than getting her Congressional Committee to heel. Democrats - have no sense of humor which they have been demonstrating for over a decade now (SNL RIP)...it's not clear they stick with each other. Abigail Spangler would have choked AOC if no one noticed!
Agreed. Trump is likely the other reason there was no red wave. The people who voted for him as the proverbial middle finger in 2016 are over it. The Republican Party needs to grow a pair, tell Trump to Fuck off and convince DeSantis he's the man... which is unlikely.
I was тАУ and I am тАУ a big Trump supporter, but not because he isnтАЩt a boor. He is. My support was primarily for his policies and the fact that he had the intestinal fortitude to call out people who were corrupt. But I am not married to him as a candidate. DeSantis seems to have every bit of TrumpтАЩs cojones without the smug self satisfaction and the tendency to punch down.
Like button not working but yes. This. Abolutely
The Democrats donтАЩt read and understand the Constitution and how laws are made. Even Ruth Bader Ginsberg thought Roe vs Wade was тАШbad lawтАЩ and should have been struck down. She expected it to happen. Ya didnтАЩt see any тАШRuthтАЩ costumes dancing around on voting day. The youth are ignorant.
Doesn't matter. The people want abortions and conservatives holding their breath, waiting for people to understand the constitution isn't going to help.
Banning abortion is a lost cause that Conservatives will never ever accomplish.
Personally, I don't think states outlawing abortion is as huge of a deal as Libs make it out to be. just go to another state, right? Even just to get an abortion.
My point is that Conservatives clinging to this issue isn't going to stop abortions and is only handing over control of the government to Pro-choice libs. It's dumb.
Agreed - I'd like to think that the country overall will migrate to the European Model - 12 to 15 weeks. The Democrats should be happy with that - they often express the thought that we should be more 'like Sweden' - I am guessing minus the race riots and bombings : )
They're called "peaceful protests!" :)
ЁЯдгЁЯТеЁЯдгЁЯзиЁЯдг