I just love it when people who are experts in one field, like evolutionary biology, think they're experts in other fields—especially when they try to apply their expertise in a foreign field.
Turchin's "scientific" model may be a good one, but one "correct" prediction isn't nearly enough evidence. If he's really any kind of a scientist, h…
I just love it when people who are experts in one field, like evolutionary biology, think they're experts in other fields—especially when they try to apply their expertise in a foreign field.
Turchin's "scientific" model may be a good one, but one "correct" prediction isn't nearly enough evidence. If he's really any kind of a scientist, he knows that himself. The chaos of 2020 occurred because of COVID and the George Floyd murder. They could have happened at any time, not just in 2020. His model did not predict these events. He got "lucky." So there is simply no reason to envision that Turchin can predict our future any more than we really believe the next great stock tip we hear on CNBC.
I just love it when people who are experts in one field, like evolutionary biology, think they're experts in other fields—especially when they try to apply their expertise in a foreign field.
Turchin's "scientific" model may be a good one, but one "correct" prediction isn't nearly enough evidence. If he's really any kind of a scientist, he knows that himself. The chaos of 2020 occurred because of COVID and the George Floyd murder. They could have happened at any time, not just in 2020. His model did not predict these events. He got "lucky." So there is simply no reason to envision that Turchin can predict our future any more than we really believe the next great stock tip we hear on CNBC.
Also, his solution is "social engineering." Wow!