Historian Peter Turchin predicted the turbulence of 2020. He tells me why, in 2024, America will reach a ‘break point.’
The “turbulence” of 2020 was purposeful. Covid was so massively distorted for political ends, inducing mass panic, attacking Trump, and loosening election integrity rules that undermined the fairness of the 2020 election. Further, while the George Floyd police brutality was horrific, it was used to create months of rioting and anger, further promoting instability. In fact, the turbulence of 2020 was the end result of the panic of the elites win an outsider fairly won the election of 2016.
From inauguration weekend, when the “pussy hats” descended upon Washington, through the Russia hoax, the impeachment and the sheer lunacy of the press, the stage for 2020 was set.
I continue to believe that the vast majority of Americans are decent, although imperfect, like all human beings. Yet the elites constantly stir the pot to divide everybody else, on the basis of political tribes, race, and now, gender.
“You write in your book that a handful of factors are the harbingers of end times or societal crisis, one of which is something you call “elite overproduction.” What is that?”
I stopped reading here and bought all of this guy’s books. THIS IS THE PROBLEM.
“The elites” are also known as parasites. They are all Democrats. Interference class bureaucrats and administrators. They do not contribute to society and, given their training, you wouldn’t expect them to.
“I’m very worried about 2024, because you now have two parties that say that they will not accept the win of another party.”
Given that history is dead-set on exposing Democrats as maximally hypocritical, I’d say a Republican will win so that Democrats can deny the election and become violent.
(NOTE: Democrat violence will actually be bad and will not be contained to the lobby of a federal building)
That made no sense to me. I think we can all feel the crazy in the air and crazy doesn’t lead anywhere good.
It would be easier just to cite the meme that bad times lead to tough people; tough people create good times; and good times create soft people, who create bad times.
We are decadent, and as a nation emotionally unequal to sustained hard and mature effort in socially positive directions.
There is little reason for optimism, but NEVER any reason for quitting. Good things remain possible, but they won’t fall off trees.
Peter Turchin’s theory of “Overproduction of the Elites” could not possibly ring more true in society today. Farrr too many kids going to college, even if they end up working at starbucks. “Elite aspirant class” I call them.
Society is usually held up by a pyramid: of plebians and patricians, the three estates, whatever metaphor you like, there are many commoners/workers and a few redundant elite lavishers at the top. Today our economy has far too many elite lavishers at the top (“email caste” is Malcolm Kyeyune’s apt term), and not enough men actually building and maintaining civilization. The economic maslows hierarchy, if you will, is completely out of whack. No longer a pyramid and more like a column.
Too many elite aspirants with no good jobs, playing status games and feeling that they’ve been lied to about their own importance. Too many blue collar men who are openly disdained by the upper classes whose existence they undergird. Money flowing in all the wrong directions. I see the factions of the upcoming clash as being the Bolsheviks (progressive college grads) versus Spartacus (the disrespected, reactionary hardworking men). All that we know is the center cant hold.
Peter Turchin’s theory of elite overproduction rings true to me, and foretells conflict on the near horizon. Every kid who doesnt go to college is a sliver of hope for America’s survival. As somebody else put it “The university is the trojan horse through which western civilization is to be destroyed”.
“how do we change our trajectory when we have an elite that many people view as corrupt and unrepresentative, what would you say?”
*View* as corrupt??
Given that Bari was chased out of the Paper Of Record by a bunch of prostitutes who hate the United States, I find it somewhat insulting that she phrased it this way.
We do not *view* them as corrupt. They *are* corrupt. And also worthless. The main problem is that they are worthless. If Nicole Hannah Jones also ran a restaurant and drove a forklift I wouldn’t mind her shitty ideas. Same with Anthony Blinken and Fiona Hill and Randi Weingarten and etc etc etc. Useless people.
"Weekend Listening: Are We Living Through ‘End Times’?"
As someone who is 75, (and a Christian) let me say I've Seen This Movie Before.
As an Unlicensed Non-Certified historian ( Doesn't that sound better than a history nut? :-)) let me say this. Evey couple of hundred years something new comes along, some new piece of technology, and everything is thrown into chaos. We are living in one right now. that little silicon chip has changed EVERYTHING.
The FreePress is a great example. 30 years ago This would not be possible.
My mom sold encyclopedias on the side when I grew up in the 70s, which meant every few years she earned a new set. So in high school my friends came to my house to write their papers because even if the encyclopedias were 4 years old, we had the most current world knowledge, short of going to the downtown Houston library. This was quite the advance from centuries before, when knowledge seekers crossed countries or continents to visit monasteries to find the latest and greatest set of facts.
Fast forward to 2020. Every “disenfranchised” minimum-wage earner and/or welfare king/queen that stood in the streets of Minny filming the George Floyd riots on their phone held in their hand most of all information known to mankind.
Whose job is it to access that knowledge and turn it into some form of a livable wage? Not mine. I’ve got 3 boys and a wife who worked outside the home until she was 49 and it took us all we had to keep it together sometimes. And the bleeding heart libs think I should raise someone else’s kids, too? Are they on drugs?
Has it EVER been easier to start a business or pick up a side hustle or drive around town running errands for all us lazy shmucks who won’t drive 5 blocks to go get our own Whataburger?
I won’t call any of our condescending, virtue signaling brethren out by name, but I challenge them to go build concrete floors in the barrios of Tegucigalpa, Honduras, like I did my first year out of college. Then tell me our poor have it tough.
Life ain’t fair. Never has been, never will be. Quit making excuses for all but a tiny majority of Americans alive today who have only themselves to blame for their “misfortune” and “suffering”.
Organize? Blue collar folks who organize get branded extremists, lose their livelihoods, and have their bank accounts closed. It’s a jungle out there.
Peter Turchin's cliodynamics sounds A LOT like Isaac Asimov's psychohistory.
Isaac Asimov's psychohistory is the reason why I ended up majoring in economics at UC Berkeley back in the Jurassic: UC Berkeley didn't offer a psychohistory major. 😀
I wonder if Turchin's book contains his predictive mathematical model? I'd definitely be interested in seeing _that_.
Robert F Kennedy Jr just posted that Biden’s DOJ refused to provide secret service protection for him which is apparently standard for presidential candidates. Wasserman Schulz managed to illegally dispose of Bernie Sanders last time around. Now she is after him, trying to shut him down, doing the bidding of the powerful. I don’t call them elites because that sounds vaguely positive for what are basically thugs who care very little about our society. They are out to strip mine it. The censorious DNC wants to serve up doddering Biden and clueless Kamala with no primary debates. I mention all this because Trump’s victory came out of the working class feeling their voices were not being heard. Here we have the DNC trying to force feed the voters an impaired President. People will be angry that they aren’t given a choice in a, uh, democracy.
What rules did Trump break in 2016? The Democrats broke the rules and turn Federal law enforcement in a political tool. Trump didn't play the game by the rules of The Swamp. But he broke no rules.
The fact we are getting shorter may be because we eat so much garbage food. Our food is fake and doesn't lead to growth.
I'm very disappointed that there were no Psychohistory jokes.
The party bent on changing our society seems to be the liberal left through the Democratic party. At least so it seems to me looking just looking around. The disaffected on the right are intent on not letting our democratic institutions be taken away from us.
I don't see how any thinking adult can take Turchin's pronouncements seriously. Much of it seems like Hegel warmed over with a touch of elitist bigotry thrown in. I don't know if Hegel is still being taught in college these days; I haven't sat in a college classroom since the early 80s. Hegel's theories actually make sense to me: "thesis, synthesis, and antithesis"--and then rewind and start again. I think Woody Allen embraced that theory when he made "Bananas" and "Sleeper." That pattern is consistent with human nature in large societies. The assumption that "non-elitists" are violent and elitists are non-violent is tellingly typical of bigoted behavior (positive and negative stereotyping). But the Hegelian model doesn't resort to stereotyping. It simply notes that at whatever point one hops on the carousel of a given civilized society, depending on how far along it is from a relatively stable status quo, that citizen becomes a part of the grand whirling dance. Lord Acton encapsulated it even more succinctly: "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." Once we arrive at the point where the corrupt ruling class sufficiently enrages the rest of us, either the put-upon citizenry will organize and pull down the ruling class--OR the ruling class will have become so corrupt and evil that it will implode upon itself. Either way, the cycle starts anew. What's almost impossible to predict is exactly how long the process will take, considering all the unpredictable variables involved.
“people who have no power, what we can do is start organizing as a social movement.”
Nice idea, but how does this actually succeed in the reality of today, in the face of immense establishment power? Any dissident or social movement that gains significant momentum gets captured or destroyed by the elite to maintain status quo. Look at Sanders, Trump, Occupy, BLM, even RFK as we speak.
“but there was something that drove societies into social turbulence and political disintegration”
Yeah it’s called utopianism. Look up the Tower of Babel. Democrats have always been here.
Hey Bari, DEVO already identified our devolutionary state like 30 years ago :)