Peter Turchin's cliodynamics sounds A LOT like Isaac Asimov's psychohistory.
Isaac Asimov's psychohistory is the reason why I ended up majoring in economics at UC Berkeley back in the Jurassic: UC Berkeley didn't offer a psychohistory major. 😀
I wonder if Turchin's book contains his predictive mathematical model? I'd definitely be interested in seeing _that_.
Peter Turchin's cliodynamics sounds A LOT like Isaac Asimov's psychohistory.
Isaac Asimov's psychohistory is the reason why I ended up majoring in economics at UC Berkeley back in the Jurassic: UC Berkeley didn't offer a psychohistory major. 😀
I wonder if Turchin's book contains his predictive mathematical model? I'd definitely be interested in seeing _that_.
All Russians know something important. We are scientifically geared super sensors. It’s in our bones. He he he ☺️
I know - for example - that Biden will soon be thrown under a bus by it’s own kind and we will have Gavin Newsome rolled into all of us. Now, that will cause quite a turmoil.
I used to think that as well but I no longer do. I think he has degraded enough to where if he actually campaigns the people on the lower end of the IQ scale will now notice. My opinion only but even if the Dems get Trump, which they obviously want, he won't be able to be functional enough to get the job.
I feel like with the power of mimetic contagion today (basically phones and narratives controlling huge swaths of people’s opinions), psychohistory is more true than ever. But we dont know what ideological contagions the cultural gatekeepers will push next, its seems unpredictable unless we knew the puppet masters actual goals.
In the "Foundation Trilogy," psychohistory was a mathematical model with like a gazillion variables, and each variable was a function you had to solve for before you could plug everything into the predictive model.
(Even today, when I stumble across some particularly inane trend in human behavior, I find myself thinking, "Hmmm... I wonder how you'd describe that in _math_?" 😀)
Cliodynamics is real, and obvs psychohistory is not! But yes, you would _have_ to factor mimetic contagion into any predictive formula that was aiming for accuracy. And that would be a challenge! Since mimetic contagion is such a qualitatively _different_ phenomenon than, say, Batesian mimicry, for which several equations have been suggested.
Okay! I'll stop talking about math now. Hold your applause. 😀
Peter Turchin's cliodynamics sounds A LOT like Isaac Asimov's psychohistory.
Isaac Asimov's psychohistory is the reason why I ended up majoring in economics at UC Berkeley back in the Jurassic: UC Berkeley didn't offer a psychohistory major. 😀
I wonder if Turchin's book contains his predictive mathematical model? I'd definitely be interested in seeing _that_.
Yes! I read the intro and thought, “is this guy trying to be Hari Seldon?!” Will Austin become Terminus…?
All Russians know something important. We are scientifically geared super sensors. It’s in our bones. He he he ☺️
I know - for example - that Biden will soon be thrown under a bus by it’s own kind and we will have Gavin Newsome rolled into all of us. Now, that will cause quite a turmoil.
Whether or not the Dems abandon Biden will depend upon who the most likely Republican candidate is, I suspect. 😀
I used to think that as well but I no longer do. I think he has degraded enough to where if he actually campaigns the people on the lower end of the IQ scale will now notice. My opinion only but even if the Dems get Trump, which they obviously want, he won't be able to be functional enough to get the job.
I feel like with the power of mimetic contagion today (basically phones and narratives controlling huge swaths of people’s opinions), psychohistory is more true than ever. But we dont know what ideological contagions the cultural gatekeepers will push next, its seems unpredictable unless we knew the puppet masters actual goals.
In the "Foundation Trilogy," psychohistory was a mathematical model with like a gazillion variables, and each variable was a function you had to solve for before you could plug everything into the predictive model.
(Even today, when I stumble across some particularly inane trend in human behavior, I find myself thinking, "Hmmm... I wonder how you'd describe that in _math_?" 😀)
Cliodynamics is real, and obvs psychohistory is not! But yes, you would _have_ to factor mimetic contagion into any predictive formula that was aiming for accuracy. And that would be a challenge! Since mimetic contagion is such a qualitatively _different_ phenomenon than, say, Batesian mimicry, for which several equations have been suggested.
Okay! I'll stop talking about math now. Hold your applause. 😀
I understand. I love the Foundation series. It may have some real life validity but I hope AI never cracks the code, or at least not first
Back in 2016, I remember someone posited Trump as “The Mule”.