The war with Iran is even more futuristic than the war in Ukraine. Not only are both sides using drones, but many U.S. and Israeli precision strikes are on targets selected by artificial intelligence. This may go down in history as the first AI war.
Yet 17 days into the conflict, the U.S.-Israeli campaign has run into a very old problem: control of a strategic waterway.
Despite being entirely outgunned, despite having lost control of its own airspace, the Islamic Republic retains sufficient firepower to attack shippers in the Strait of Hormuz, deterring them from moving through it. The resulting contraction of the world’s oil and gas supply has caused energy prices to skyrocket and threatens the stability of the global economy, not to mention the political future of Donald Trump’s administration. On Friday, the Pentagon ordered Marines and warships to the Gulf to open the strait.
Fragmented data makes it hard to find patients who need urgent care. Qualified Health used Claude to screen 1M+ heart failure patients.
Nowhere is the law of unintended consequences more binding than when crucial commercial choke points become casualties of war. Although it is fashionable nowadays to focus on financial choke points that can be exploited by sanctions, the oldest choke points are natural geographical features such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea Straits, and the Strait of Malacca, as well as man-made trade corridors such as the Suez and Panama Canals. These waterways often become critical in times of war. And their history helps answer the question now facing the Trump administration: Now what?
