There was a time, not all that long ago, when I would have been among those rolling their eyes at the SpaceX IPO. At the company’s insane $2 trillion valuation. Its $5 billion in losses in 2025. Its ludicrous prospectus, with its insistence that its “total addressable market” is $28.5 trillion, which is roughly the annual U.S. GDP. Of course, to get to that number, the company will need to establish “a lunar economy” and interplanetary industrialization. That sort of thing.
I would have agreed with Morningstar’s securities analysts, who said the stock was “significantly overvalued.” I would have applauded the words of Jim Chanos—the short-seller who famously smoked out the Enron fraud—when he said that “this is really a hopes and dreams IPO.” I would have shouted from the rafters: “Where are the fundamentals to justify this kind of price?” They are nowhere to be found. Nvidia, one of the world’s most successful and profitable tech companies, trades at approximately 20 times trailing 12-month sales. At its Friday closing price of $161 per share, SpaceX trades at 95 times. As I said, it’s nuts.
