Could Syria take out Hezbollah?
It’s a serious question now that negotiations on an agreement to end the war are about to begin between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump’s patience with Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon against the terrorist proxy group already was wearing thin when he said at the G7 summit in Paris, “Frankly, I think Syria would do a better job.”
In early June, Trump told Benjamin Netanyahu that that the Israeli prime minister was “fucking crazy” after Israel struck Hezbollah targets, resulting in an Iranian threat to walk away from the negotiating table, according to Axios. Last weekend, Trump told NBC News, “I’d like to see Lebanon have a better life. I’d like to see a more surgical attack on Hezbollah.”
Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda fighter who became Syria’s president in January 2025 after the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, has said that any suggestion that planning is underway for such a “surgical attack” is unfounded.
I asked Ahmad Shawari, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, how realistic it is for Syria to go after Hezbollah and what that would mean for the Middle East, Israel, and the U.S.’s presence in the region. His responses have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Tanner Nau: Two years ago, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime was a close ally of Hezbollah. Now, President Trump is pitching the idea that Syria will take over Israel’s fight against Hezbollah. How did we get here?
Ahmad Shawari: Bashar al-Assad was a close Hezbollah ally at its peak in 2017. Hezbollah maintained about 10,000 fighters inside Syria. But with the fall of the regime in December 2024, that military entrenchment disappeared. And Hezbollah had to withdraw from Syria, because they lost a key ally in Assad. Since Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government has taken over, there has been severe degradation in Hezbollah’s ability to use Syria as a corridor for its weapons. But that is still operational to a lesser extent, using local actors and remnants of the regime.
The Syrian government has thwarted multiple plots to attack targets within Syria and also Israel from using Syrian territory by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has tried to continue destabilizing Syria, mainly for the goal of reestablishing that corridor so they can rearm with Iranian weapons. This new al-Sharaa government is no ally of Hezbollah. They’ve stopped multiple shipments from going through. And I think that’s a basis for why President Trump is advocating for this position. He’s trying to find a creative way to solve the Hezbollah issue.
TN: Do you think what Trump is calling for is realistic?
