The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has now lasted weeks longer than the period of major hostilities. And as is often the case with ceasefires in the Middle East, it involves a good deal of shooting. Every other day or so now sees an exchange of fire in or around the Strait of Hormuz. But nonetheless, every other day or so also sees recurring suggestions that, really, this time a deal between Washington and Tehran is all but at hand. And yet, like the eponymous character in Samuel Beckett’s absurdist play Waiting for Godot, the deal never arrives.
It’s easy to get lost following the complexities and twists of this drama, but the basic reason the negotiations and the leaks about the supposed progress of negotiations toward a happy resolution keep dragging on is simple: The two sides’ current demands are irreconcilable.
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Iran, having seized control of the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of the conflict, doesn’t want to give it back. The United States wants a return to the status quo in the key waterway. Iran also wishes to rebuild a nuclear program from its current rubble-ized conditions, though it appears willing to accept some form of time-limited restrictions in return for large amounts of money. This structure is, of course, the same as that of President Barack Obama’s nuclear diplomacy, and such a deal would be politically painful for President Donald Trump to sell to Senate Republicans. (It would also be subject to review by Congress.) The president also wants Iran’s highly enriched uranium brought out of the country or rendered safe under international supervision. The Iranians appear to be in no hurry to agree to this.
