There are two numbers that matter when it comes to the war with Iran: 20 million, and 138.
Twenty million barrels per day is the commonly accepted figure for the average prewar flow of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. The more America’s military and some brave commercial seamen can get daily flows to approximate this number, the longer the economic clock for global energy markets can run. This creates time for the Trump administration to apply pressure to Iran via the blockade and other measures.
But 138 is the number of days until the next U.S. Congress is seated: January 3, 2027. Barring a borderline miraculous turn of events for the Republican Party, Democrats look very likely to control the House—and they have a long shot at the Senate. Many surviving Republicans will attribute their drubbing at least in part to the war in Iran. So while military efforts in the strait can extend the economic clock and buy time to push Iran’s economy to the brink, the political clock ticks as well.
Beyond the ticking of these two clocks, much else of what you hear has been insignificant noise. The talk of diplomacy and the now-expired MOU has ultimately led nowhere, which was predictable (and predicted!). Trump’s repeated threats of massive escalation have come to nothing—and he has thankfully eased back on them in recent days. Economic warfare is the name of the game for now.
