For a president who frequently criticized Barack Obama for the 2013 fiasco of the unenforced “red line” in Syria, Donald Trump has failed to enforce the aggressive ultimatums he put to Iran at least five times since March. And for all of Trump’s fervent opposition to the weaknesses of Obama’s deal in 2015 with Iran, from which Trump withdrew in 2018 during his first term, the president is now investing his hopes in a diplomatic process that can only hand substantial control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran.
These are not the actions of a president who feels he is operating from a position of strength, however tough his rhetoric. These are the actions of a president who is attempting to surrender with dignity to the Iranians, the better to move on to other issues. But while the Iranians might accept a surrender in the Strait of Hormuz, they will not grant Trump his dignity. Iran’s leaders have either concluded that the regime can survive another round of major American strikes, just as it survived the worst in March and April, or they think that Trump’s threatened escalation against Iran will never come.
Iran’s leaders might ultimately be wrong that Trump won’t escalate, but such a belief would not be irrational. Remember that back on March 21, President Trump wrote on social media, “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” Two days later, he backed down, writing, “I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD” because of “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Tehran.
When those conversations turned out, two weeks later, to be less productive than Trump seemed to have hoped, the president wrote that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.” Two days after that, on April 7, after writing just that morning that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump suspended his threats for “a period of two weeks,” which he said was at the request of Pakistan’s leadership and “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”
