Since Israel began its war against Iran, President Trump and his White House have sent mixed messages, giving the warring factions of his political coalition reason to hope they may prevail in shaping his policy toward the new war for the Middle East.
It’s been a long time coming. As I reported earlier this year, even before Trump’s second presidency began, the restrainers inside the MAGA movement had hoped to create an America First foreign policy that pares down America’s global military footprint. On the other side, a mix of pro-Israel evangelicals, Jews, and the remnants of GOP hawks have sought to keep America engaged in the world.
Iran policy is the defining difference between these factions. For the restrainers, war between Israel and Iran is another Middle East quagmire at best and the first battle of World War III at worst. For the hawks, it is a necessary fight to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran and even a chance to finish off an American enemy that has menaced its allies and interests for decades.
No wonder the rhetoric has been so heated. Tucker Carlson, the most influential restrainer in the media, began a newsletter on Friday morning with the ominous headline: “This Could Be the Final Newsletter Before All-Out War.” Senator Rand Paul, also in the restrainer camp, told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that he expected “hundreds of thousands of people. . . will now die on both sides.”