Iran threatened last week to set ablaze tankers that tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy choke point. On Sunday, it started to follow through on the threat, with an oil tanker struck by a drone burning in the water. Meanwhile, Israel has begun attacks on Iran’s oil storage facilities, leaving Tehran covered in a toxic haze and raising the prospect of Iran retaliating against the Gulf States’ infrastructure.
The worst possible scenario for a military conflict in the Middle East is one that encompasses all the oil and natural producers in the Persian Gulf, halts all tanker traffic into and out of the Strait of Hormuz, and includes significant damage to oil and natural gas infrastructure in these countries.
This Is How an Energy Crisis Starts
Smoke rises over destroyed vehicles near the Shahran oil refinery after an overnight air strike. in Tehran on March 8, 2026. (AFP via Getty Images)
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil is over $100 a barrel. And it could soon get worse.
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