With war raging in the Middle East, we want to bring you as many trusted voices on the news as we can. One such voice is the Israeli journalist Amit Segal. He writes a daily newsletter, It’s Noon in Israel, which we’re pleased to publish in The Free Press.
Israel’s lesson from the attacks of October 7 is that intentions do not matter—capabilities do. For years, its Defense Forces ignored the terror monster rising on its borders and instead focused on whether the enemy intended to attack or whether it was in its interest to do so. Similarly, although it is tempting to dwell on the current sentiments in Tehran, it is ultimately irrelevant. The critical question is whether Iran currently has the capability to pose a real threat to Israel.
The answer, after 39 days of war, is: less than it did 39 days ago.
In practical terms, Iran promised it would not sign a temporary ceasefire—and it did. It said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen—and it reopened. It swore to include ending the war in Lebanon—and Hezbollah suffered hundreds of casualties yesterday. This is what remains of the Iranian axis that once cast a long shadow across the Middle East.
