As I write this, the death toll in the Texas flash floods now exceeds 90, with others still missing. It is a heartbreaking and horrific tragedy.
Many have been quick to politicize the flooding in an effort to support whatever agenda that they were promoting before it—climate change, DOGE budget cuts, operations of the National Weather Service, the Biden administration. The one political implication of the disaster that I’m ready to call for is to reassert the importance of establishing a U.S. Disaster Review Board, a case made by Mike Smith on my Substack, The Honest Broker, last March.
Today, I share some data and context on the floods for those wanting to go beyond seeking to use tragic deaths in hopes of scoring online partisan points.
This tragedy occurred in a location that has among the greatest risks of flash flooding in the nation, where kids in summer camps have previously been swept away to their deaths, and where warning systems are—apparently and incredibly—not in place. This tragedy never should have happened, and it should never happen again.
Early in my career I studied the use of weather forecasts and warnings at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, including flood warnings. Overall, the U.S. has seen tremendous progress in forecasts, warnings, and evacuations, with a long-term drop in death rates from flooding. However, this week’s catastrophe shows that we still have much work to do.
Where Did This Flood Occur?
The flood took place in a region of Texas that has long been called “Flash Flood Alley,” and is pictured in the image above from a 2022 article by AccuWeather. That article explained:
