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The German Establishment’s Last Chance
CDU leader and probable next German chancellor Friedrich Merz. (Michael Kappeler via Getty Images)
Immigration drove Germans to the polls in record numbers, and it doubled the AfD’s vote share. Is the next chancellor listening?
By Christopher Caldwell
02.24.25 — International
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The winner of Sunday’s German elections has been known for months, almost since the outgoing government, led by Social Democrats and dominated by Greens, collapsed last November. As expected, Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats have finished on top, albeit with a flabbier than foreseen 29 percent of the vote.

Out of power since Merz’s intraparty rival Angela Merkel stepped down in 2021, the center-right party is back. But that prospect is not why 83 percent of voters—the highest turnout in the history of post–Cold War Germany—thronged the polls on Sunday.

German voters have decided that stopping mass immigration, legal and illegal, is a national emergency. And the party addressing it most directly is the Alternative for Germany. The so-called AfD finished second with 21 percent of the vote, doubling its share of seats. But many on the country’s center and left claim it is exactly the kind of party the country’s post-Nazi constitutional order is meant to exclude.

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Christopher Caldwell
Christopher Caldwell is the author of Reflections on the Revolution in Europe and, most recently, The Age of Entitlement.
Tags:
Immigration
Europe
Germany
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