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The Ayatollah’s Waiting Game
Iranian demonstrators wave national flags and hold a portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran on April 17, 2026. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The Iranian regime can’t afford Trump’s blockade. It’s praying America blinks first.
By Amit Segal
04.23.26 — Israel
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With war raging in the Middle East, we want to bring you as many trusted voices on the news as we can. One such voice is the Israeli journalist Amit Segal. He writes a daily newsletter, It’s Noon in Israel, which we’re pleased to publish in The Free Press.

It’s Thursday, April 23, and the war with Iran is no longer about oil or gas; it is a battle over a single resource: time. The questions that will determine the fate of the Middle East are who controls the clock, who can afford to wait, and who is simply out of time?

Currently, the ayatollahs boast that their dictatorial regime will allow them to hold out indefinitely, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz imposes an expiration date on U.S. aggression. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump claims to be in an equally comfortable position: Iranian ports are blockaded, some commercial ships are still navigating the strait despite the closure, and fresh U.S. military assets are on their way.

The question is, who’s bluffing?

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Amit Segal
Amit Segal is the chief political correspondent for Israel’s Channel 12 and author of the book A Call at 4AM, recently released in English. He is the author of the newsletter It’s Noon In Israel, which publishes six days a week.
Tags:
War
Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump
Foreign Policy
Iran
Diplomacy
Oil
China
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