Even as the world’s attention is focused on the Middle East, Beijing’s looming threat to Taiwan poses less immediate but potentially catastrophic risks to the world economy. Well aware of the danger, Taiwan is beginning to make extraordinary strides in breaking its dependence on China. In the process, it could help us break ours, too.
I’m deeply pessimistic about U.S.-China competition. The war in Iran will help determine the global order of the next decades. But the battle for supremacy with China will be at least as important, and it rests on our ability to keep China’s global economic influence in check. Unfortunately, in key sectors of the global economy, China is increasing its lead. Already dominant in industrial production, China is expected to increase its global share of manufacturing to 45 percent by 2030.
