In a blockbuster ruling, the Supreme Court just struck down a Louisiana redistricting map because the state legislature, attempting to comply with the Voting Rights Act, had deliberately created a “majority-minority” district—a district where blacks were a majority. There are many majority-minority congressional districts in other states, similarly drawn to comply with the Voting Rights Act, all of which may now be unconstitutional under the Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais. Because those districts tend to elect Democrats, some have predicted that the outcome the Court just reached in Callais could upend the midterms, turning between 12 and 20 blue House seats red.
Such dramatic consequences are very unlikely, as I’ll explain in a moment. But first—what happened in Callais, and what did the Court hold?
The background of the case is tortuous. In 2022, Louisiana’s Republican-dominated legislature drew a redistricting map that created five safe Republican congressional seats and one safe Democratic seat. Black voters were the majority in the safe Democratic district.
That map was challenged in federal court. The plaintiffs argued that under the Voting Rights Act, the state should have a second majority-black district because blacks make up about 32 percent of Louisiana’s population, whereas one out of six districts amounts to only 16 percent.
