On the poll results: Both Dems and Reps may thing that Kennedy will hurt Dems more.
That could at least partially explain the poll results. The Reps would love that. The Dems would hate that. The polls seem to only record favorable vs. unfavorable.
If the polls were on specific policy positions of RFK Jr. I think you'd have a stronger point there.
Keep telling yourself that Nate. I know you got the Hillary Clinton win over Trump correct. How was her Presidency? Biden will be abandoned by the Party as well as Kamala when the Left finally realize the they will LOSE! Their hunger for power supersedes any respect for rules, morals because it is WIN AT ALL COSTS! RFK, Jr. will hurt the Democrats! The name KENNEDY and the Democratic Party are one. What will happen is the Progressive Left will destroy the party as they try to WIN AT ALL COST. RFK, Jr will expose the Progressive Left while insuring their implosion.
If the race is between Biden and Trump, I would vote for any third party candidate to make a statement. If no third party and choice is just Biden or Trump, I will not vote.
I always like to see Nate Silver's insights. He kind of fell into the back room at 538. I hope he returns to being his old self on Substack.
As for Robert Kennedy, his family doesn't back him. Few real Democrats trust him. But a lot of anti-vaccine Ron DeSantis and Trump fans agree with his nonsense. He's no John Anderson or Ralph Nader. Indeed he has little of the charm we've come to expect from the Kennedy clan.
The unknown is who will be the real independent and alternative candidate for fallen away Democrats and Republicans to consider supporting?
No Labels seems to be a bunch of folks who couldn't make it in the big time and are grasping for power.
They would be better off blogging and commenting on The Free Press.
This piece reads too much like one from the legacy/mainstream media (never mind how much it cites those outlets). "Endorses conspiracy theories" (easy to believe if you don't read the research he cites); "has views outside the scientific consensus" ("consensus" only because all dissenting views are censored); "doesn’t think it’s realistic to reduce gun violence" (he actually said it's not realistic to believe gun control will reduce gun violence because prescription meds are potentially the bigger culprit); "claimed that Covid vaccines are ethnically targeted” (CONTEXT, Nate - he said the virus disproportionately afflicted some ethnicities more than others); "said the 2004 election was stolen from John Kerry" (voting machine tampering was a huge story in that election, for which a lot of other people were crying foul, as well). When you rely on legacy media for your sources, it's no wonder you come away with distorted views.
This article helps rfk, having provided me with arguments that he is not necessarily a democratic spoiler. Thank you for your work, Nate. Thank you for your grudge against the NYT, Bari... and your work as well :p
Never Trump Republicans voted for Biden last time, while Democrats uncomfortable with Biden hold their nose and vote for him anyway, they would never vote for Trump. Both groups might go for RFK if given the option, which would be a net loss for Biden.
I've listened to RFK, Jr. quite a bit and like a lot of what he says. But I'm about 99% likely to vote for the GOP nominee for two reasons: (1) on some issues like affirmative action and climate change, I strongly disagree with Bobby; and (2) no third-party candidate has a decent chance of winning in a country that has two strong, dominant parties. I'm hoping Trump isn't the GOP nominee but I won't hesitate to vote for him if he is.
I’m old enough to remember the ‘92 election and Ross Perot viciously attacked Bush for months. (Apparently he did not like Bush in some Texas feud.) He turned to Clinton late in the campaign (chicken man). I think this early shaping of opinions hurt Bush and that is hard to measure later.
I remember it too. Perot was leading both and suddenly, without a lot of explanation, dropped out. Then he came back in. He lost about 10% support by doing that and it cost him the race. I'm not sure what a plurality of college professors think, but I remember clearly thinking this cost Bush the race.
It doesn't hurt Biden because Democrats are fanatics now who vote party line more so than the GOP. However, it doesn't really hurt Trump either since those voters who voted for him in 2020 are likely to vote for him again for the same reasons: to stop the fanatics. The RFK voters are a subset of the Democrats -- call them the Bret Weinstein, Heather Heying, vaccine-skeptical people -- who would never have voted for Trump anyway.
People like Matt Taibbi who didn't vote in 2020 because he couldn't vote for either might turn out for RFK, Jr. If you voted for Trump chances are you'll vote for him again. I might have voted for RFK but he refuses to take a firm stand against "Gender Affirming Care" so I cannot vote for him. I will only vote for the candidate who can make the promise to end it for young people.
You never know. A lot can happen in a year. I would also argue there are more former Trump supporters who will vote RFK this time around. My basis for that is the countless comments I see under articles, YouTube videos and podcasts stating some version of, "I voted for Trump twice, but RFK Jr has my vote in 2024." It really surprised me at first.
Kennedy should have just as much of a chance as any candidate, and given what we have gone through over the past few election cycles I believe people are pretty fed up with this two party system. When the party doesn’t even want to allow for a debate between the current democratic candidates, of which there are several, and the president which puts our democratic values in jeopardy. The polls are showing that almost 3/4 of the population DO NOT want this rematch between Trump and Biden. Time for some new ideas because the old ways aren’t cutting it anymore, and we are on the precipice of disaster in this country if we continue down the same path.
Someone should write an article about how it could hurt both Trump and Biden because he could win. I you listen to interviews with RFK Jr., Trump, and Biden, He is the only one that seems to be relatively intelligent and reasonable, and honest. People still have over a year to grudgingly accept this reality. And, most importantly, he has the best campaign logo. Just seeing the name Kennedy has a psychological effect.
I know a lot of people (myself included) who are looking to vote 3rd party if the race is Trump vs. Biden again. This could be the best chance for a 3rd party candidate since Perot.
Yes, because Biden supporters are a lost cause.
On the poll results: Both Dems and Reps may thing that Kennedy will hurt Dems more.
That could at least partially explain the poll results. The Reps would love that. The Dems would hate that. The polls seem to only record favorable vs. unfavorable.
If the polls were on specific policy positions of RFK Jr. I think you'd have a stronger point there.
Keep telling yourself that Nate. I know you got the Hillary Clinton win over Trump correct. How was her Presidency? Biden will be abandoned by the Party as well as Kamala when the Left finally realize the they will LOSE! Their hunger for power supersedes any respect for rules, morals because it is WIN AT ALL COSTS! RFK, Jr. will hurt the Democrats! The name KENNEDY and the Democratic Party are one. What will happen is the Progressive Left will destroy the party as they try to WIN AT ALL COST. RFK, Jr will expose the Progressive Left while insuring their implosion.
If the race is between Biden and Trump, I would vote for any third party candidate to make a statement. If no third party and choice is just Biden or Trump, I will not vote.
I always like to see Nate Silver's insights. He kind of fell into the back room at 538. I hope he returns to being his old self on Substack.
As for Robert Kennedy, his family doesn't back him. Few real Democrats trust him. But a lot of anti-vaccine Ron DeSantis and Trump fans agree with his nonsense. He's no John Anderson or Ralph Nader. Indeed he has little of the charm we've come to expect from the Kennedy clan.
The unknown is who will be the real independent and alternative candidate for fallen away Democrats and Republicans to consider supporting?
No Labels seems to be a bunch of folks who couldn't make it in the big time and are grasping for power.
They would be better off blogging and commenting on The Free Press.
This piece reads too much like one from the legacy/mainstream media (never mind how much it cites those outlets). "Endorses conspiracy theories" (easy to believe if you don't read the research he cites); "has views outside the scientific consensus" ("consensus" only because all dissenting views are censored); "doesn’t think it’s realistic to reduce gun violence" (he actually said it's not realistic to believe gun control will reduce gun violence because prescription meds are potentially the bigger culprit); "claimed that Covid vaccines are ethnically targeted” (CONTEXT, Nate - he said the virus disproportionately afflicted some ethnicities more than others); "said the 2004 election was stolen from John Kerry" (voting machine tampering was a huge story in that election, for which a lot of other people were crying foul, as well). When you rely on legacy media for your sources, it's no wonder you come away with distorted views.
Call me stuffy, but I won;t vote for anyone that wears shoes without socks. Yecchh!
Stop being a one issue voter! (ha ha)
judging purely by the polling of FP by counting number of comments on here it looks like rfk is a zero
This article helps rfk, having provided me with arguments that he is not necessarily a democratic spoiler. Thank you for your work, Nate. Thank you for your grudge against the NYT, Bari... and your work as well :p
Never Trump Republicans voted for Biden last time, while Democrats uncomfortable with Biden hold their nose and vote for him anyway, they would never vote for Trump. Both groups might go for RFK if given the option, which would be a net loss for Biden.
I've listened to RFK, Jr. quite a bit and like a lot of what he says. But I'm about 99% likely to vote for the GOP nominee for two reasons: (1) on some issues like affirmative action and climate change, I strongly disagree with Bobby; and (2) no third-party candidate has a decent chance of winning in a country that has two strong, dominant parties. I'm hoping Trump isn't the GOP nominee but I won't hesitate to vote for him if he is.
I’m old enough to remember the ‘92 election and Ross Perot viciously attacked Bush for months. (Apparently he did not like Bush in some Texas feud.) He turned to Clinton late in the campaign (chicken man). I think this early shaping of opinions hurt Bush and that is hard to measure later.
I remember it too. Perot was leading both and suddenly, without a lot of explanation, dropped out. Then he came back in. He lost about 10% support by doing that and it cost him the race. I'm not sure what a plurality of college professors think, but I remember clearly thinking this cost Bush the race.
That giant sucking sound
Good times
It doesn't hurt Biden because Democrats are fanatics now who vote party line more so than the GOP. However, it doesn't really hurt Trump either since those voters who voted for him in 2020 are likely to vote for him again for the same reasons: to stop the fanatics. The RFK voters are a subset of the Democrats -- call them the Bret Weinstein, Heather Heying, vaccine-skeptical people -- who would never have voted for Trump anyway.
People like Matt Taibbi who didn't vote in 2020 because he couldn't vote for either might turn out for RFK, Jr. If you voted for Trump chances are you'll vote for him again. I might have voted for RFK but he refuses to take a firm stand against "Gender Affirming Care" so I cannot vote for him. I will only vote for the candidate who can make the promise to end it for young people.
You never know. A lot can happen in a year. I would also argue there are more former Trump supporters who will vote RFK this time around. My basis for that is the countless comments I see under articles, YouTube videos and podcasts stating some version of, "I voted for Trump twice, but RFK Jr has my vote in 2024." It really surprised me at first.
He will pull those who are angry about the vaccine and there are many of them.
Kennedy should have just as much of a chance as any candidate, and given what we have gone through over the past few election cycles I believe people are pretty fed up with this two party system. When the party doesn’t even want to allow for a debate between the current democratic candidates, of which there are several, and the president which puts our democratic values in jeopardy. The polls are showing that almost 3/4 of the population DO NOT want this rematch between Trump and Biden. Time for some new ideas because the old ways aren’t cutting it anymore, and we are on the precipice of disaster in this country if we continue down the same path.
Someone should write an article about how it could hurt both Trump and Biden because he could win. I you listen to interviews with RFK Jr., Trump, and Biden, He is the only one that seems to be relatively intelligent and reasonable, and honest. People still have over a year to grudgingly accept this reality. And, most importantly, he has the best campaign logo. Just seeing the name Kennedy has a psychological effect.
I know a lot of people (myself included) who are looking to vote 3rd party if the race is Trump vs. Biden again. This could be the best chance for a 3rd party candidate since Perot.
I'm an independent, and he's getting my vote no matter which party he runs in.
Were you former Biden or Trump voter? I was Trump and am definitely leaning toward RFK Jr.