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Niall Ferguson: J.D. Vance Picked a Fight in Germany. Will He Get One in China?
Niall Ferguson: J.D. Vance Picked a Fight in Germany. Will He Get One in China?
Vice President J.D. Vance speaks at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, on February 14, 2025. (Tobias Schwarz via Getty Images)
From Mar-a-Gaza to the Eurocrats in Munich, no one—so far—is punching back against this White House. But there is one battle the U.S. cannot afford to lose.
By Niall Ferguson
02.17.25 — U.S. Politics
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Niall Ferguson: J.D. Vance Picked a Fight in Germany. Will He Get One in China?

For a man who is said to have his eye on the Nobel Peace Prize, President Donald J. Trump sure is spoiling for a fight.

His administration increasingly reminds me of the character in Stephen Crane’s Wild West short story, “The Bride Comes to Yellow Sky.” Scratchy Wilson prowls the dusty streets of the one-horse town in search of a fight—any fight. The locals take cover, barricading themselves into the Weary Gentleman saloon. Scratchy is reduced to taking pot shots at the barman’s dog and the saloon door. “The man called to the sky. . . . He bellowed and fumed and swayed his revolvers here and everywhere. But “there was no offer of fight—no offer of fight.”

Even before he was sworn in, President Trump was picking fights. Like Scratchy, he started with his neighbors. He threatened 25 percent tariffs on Canada and on Mexico and spoke of annexing the former. Neither counterpunched. Indeed, both caved within days—Mexico by sending 10,000 troops to the border; Canada by appointing a “fentanyl czar” and further expanding its $1.3 billion border security plan.

Then Trump looked further afield. He demanded the return of the Panama Canal. He asked Denmark to hand over Greenland. He slapped a 10 percent tariff on imports from China. Still, no fight—just a few, limited, tit-for-tat tariffs.

The latest attempt to start a fight—and by the looks of it, the most successful so far— took place at the usually dull Munich Security Conference on Valentine’s Day, when Vice President J. D. Vance challenged not only the European Union but also Britain.

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Niall Ferguson
Sir Niall Ferguson, MA, DPhil, FRSE, is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. He is the author of 16 books, including The Pity of War, The House of Rothschild, and Kissinger, 1923-1968: The Idealist, which won the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Book Award. He is a columnist with The Free Press. In addition, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle, a New York-based advisory firm, a co-founder of the Latin American fintech company Ualá, and a co-founding trustee of the new University of Austin.
Tags:
Immigration
Russia
Politics
International
Ukraine
China
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