Gavin Newsom crossed the threshold on Sunday from rising political star to an official icon of America’s tastemaking class when he received a splashy profile in Vogue magazine. Few presidential hopefuls have pulled that off, but it isn’t surprising that the California governor made the cut.
After all, he’s had quite a year. While other Democratic politicians have struggled to adapt to the chaos of the second Trump term, Newsom has responded with a blitz of activity that has dramatically raised his profile. At this time last year, he was polling in the single digits for the 2028 primary, stuck in a scrum with other possible candidates and trailing Kamala Harris by a wide margin. Today Newsom tops all three major poll averages—enough to make him the undeniable front-runner.
Newsom’s strength is also showing in the betting markets. On PredictIt, he is far and away the betting favorite for the Democratic nomination, way ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Harris, the second and third most popular choices. He trails only J.D. Vance in the betting for the 2028 general election.
What accounts for this remarkable surge? How did a liberal California Democrat win so much support a year after Democrats got walloped when their candidate was . . . another liberal California Democrat?
