The total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children the average woman has in her reproductive lifetime. It needs to be a bare minimum of 2.1 for a civilization to survive. The TFR in the US today is around 1.6 and dropping. Sub replacement TFRs are becoming the norm around the world.
It appears that modernity is not a viable civilizational norm.
The total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children the average woman has in her reproductive lifetime. It needs to be a bare minimum of 2.1 for a civilization to survive. The TFR in the US today is around 1.6 and dropping. Sub replacement TFRs are becoming the norm around the world.
It appears that modernity is not a viable civilizational norm.
Naw. That's just a POV (Point of View) that emphasized de-growth. There isn't much inherently a problem with the current population.
And, practically speaking, are *YOU* gonna be the one to tell the third world countries their population can't grow any more? Even if You *are,* do You think You'll be heeded?
"Sub replacement TFRs are becoming the norm around the world." They are becoming the norm in the "advanced" world, the west, plus Japan, S. Korea, etc. (China too, but for very different reasons). Not at all the norm in Africa, L. America, M. East, much of Asia... The totally messed-up, ideologized, alienated, post-human part of the world we inhabit is not "the world." Thank God. And by the way, when we think about a foreign policy where we are "spreading our values," this sort of totally messed-up, nightmarish, social dystopia is what we are pushing on the rest of the world. No wonder some will fight to the death to avoid our "largesse," the 'blessings of liberty', etc.
Fertility rates are very rampant even in developing nations. The primary distinction is the city versus country. Generally Rural areas have high fertility rates, metros have negative rates. Compare Mexico fertility rate to that of Mexico City for example.
I am not worried about American TFR. We are the richest country in the world and have a long history of immigration: young and bright people world over would want to come to our country and become great American citizens.
It's just a phase where the elites have jammed up our minds with Xenophobia for political gain. That too shall pass like it did in our history.
I agree, we in the US will be fine. Our country is a desirable target for immigrants and our population density is still quite low. I, for one, would like to see us accept a lot more immigrants than we do.
And yet, as a solution to collapsing fertility rates immigration is clearly not going to work. Immigration is zero sum: If we gain someone else loses.
To Linus and Stephen, this an interesting observation about the US still being attractive to young and bright people world over.. I am an immigrant, I have been in California for 20 years and all this time I have been surrounded by other immigrants and I see the enthusiasm over the US cooling off in our circles. Let me share a couple of stories here. They do look like anecdotal evidences, but they also somewhat highlight an overall mood in the professional immigration circles here, in the Silicon Valley and beyond.
A client of mine, an MD from New Jersey was brought here from Russia in the early 1990s. She went to high school and got her degree in the US and worked here for a number of years. In 2019 while in her mid 30s, she went to her native Krasnoyarsk for a year of sabbatical with her husband and two kids and they havenтАЩt been back to the US since. She says she doesnтАЩt want to; mainly because of the kids. She is concerned about the suffocating children vaccinations requirement (she is an MD), and an overall climate in the US.
A fellow mom from the German school here in the Silicon Valley made a decision to move back to Berlin after her two kids were walking home from the train station and police car stopped them and drove them home giving parents a warning of the unsafe behavior. This happened in Mt.View, in the heart of the Silicon Valley, couple of miles away from Google HQ. It was a ten minute walk through a lively downtown and the kids were 7 and 9 years old. The fact that such situation can be considered тАЬunsafeтАЭ is insane for Europeans. Her husband was on an тАЬOтАЭ Visa at Google, itтАЩs a тАЬspecial abilitiesтАЭ visa, granted to highly skilled professionals with unique skillset and it is easily transferred into Green Card. They abandoned their Green Cards and went back to Germany citing better environment for kids.
.
Another friend of mine here in the Silicon Valley is from Crimea (Russia-Ukraine-Russia-Rinse-Repeat). She and her husband are US citizens and their three kids were born in California. Every summer she spends in the Crimea. She flew her brood to the Crimea this summer as well, while the war is in progress. She just came back, kids had wonderful time over there making friends and exploring surroundings unattended. She is certain she will get her kids out of California and preferably from the US and will not allow their puberty years to be spent here. Her husband, who is a Russian immigrant as well, works at Apple and is concerned that he wonтАЩt find a good position in Europe, let alone in Russia. There are tensions about it between the two of them, but she is determined to take her children away from the US at least during their formative puberty years.
.
I myself am frantically looking for ways to move my California born kids out of the Silicon Valley into a healthier and less robotic environments. I consider Italy, Eastern Europe or Brazil, given that Russia and Ukraine are no options for us right now.
.
These stories do sound like anecdotal evidences. Yet, they also highlight an overall mood in the immigrant circles, at least in the post-Soviet and in the European professional immigration that I am exposed to. These are all people with advanced degrees and highly paid positions in the leading, global companies, who once viewed the US as a very attractive destination.
I think that right now the US to professional immigrants is what Ivy League school to the high school age kids parents. The momentum is still there, the admissions into the Ivy League schools are still sought after, but some serious exodus has begun and this exodus includes the most independent, daring minds, that America has historically prided itself for.
The risk that these schools will loose their appeal to the brightest minds out there is serious. And so is the US attractiveness to the professional immigration. Truth is, it mainly applies to Europeans. Chinese and Indian immigrants here, in the Silicon Valley seem to be thriving due to their higher numbers and their own, more insulated cultures; they do not seek to merge with the Americans, the way Europeans and Post-Soviet tend to seek. This is fine, but it may draw a very different cultural landscape.
I will be happy to be wrong and to see that this is a short phase and that in the next couple of years it will be over and my concerns turn out to be a mere paranoia as we all merge into some beautiful, multi-faceted melting pot. However, with the dynamic right now, I am forced to spend my energy to find a better place for my kids outside of the US, because the tragic wisdom of my native Russia has taught me that тАЬa phaseтАЭ can last a life-time of a generation. Or two.
DonтАЩt worry some of us have three or four to keep up haha. I love my babies. In all seriousness I realize that a small portion of the population that has more kids wonтАЩt totally outweigh the majority who are not, but I think the kids of the small portion will have seen a larger family modeled to them.
The total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children the average woman has in her reproductive lifetime. It needs to be a bare minimum of 2.1 for a civilization to survive. The TFR in the US today is around 1.6 and dropping. Sub replacement TFRs are becoming the norm around the world.
It appears that modernity is not a viable civilizational norm.
On the plus side, the world does seem a bit over populated.
You've obviously never been to Alaska.
"On the plus side, the world does seem a bit over populated."
agreed, but our entitlement programs require an expanding population.
It seems that way to those who have the luxury of living in opulence. In reality population decline is the biggest threat humanity faces.
Naw. That's just a POV (Point of View) that emphasized de-growth. There isn't much inherently a problem with the current population.
And, practically speaking, are *YOU* gonna be the one to tell the third world countries their population can't grow any more? Even if You *are,* do You think You'll be heeded?
"Sub replacement TFRs are becoming the norm around the world." They are becoming the norm in the "advanced" world, the west, plus Japan, S. Korea, etc. (China too, but for very different reasons). Not at all the norm in Africa, L. America, M. East, much of Asia... The totally messed-up, ideologized, alienated, post-human part of the world we inhabit is not "the world." Thank God. And by the way, when we think about a foreign policy where we are "spreading our values," this sort of totally messed-up, nightmarish, social dystopia is what we are pushing on the rest of the world. No wonder some will fight to the death to avoid our "largesse," the 'blessings of liberty', etc.
Fertility rates are very rampant even in developing nations. The primary distinction is the city versus country. Generally Rural areas have high fertility rates, metros have negative rates. Compare Mexico fertility rate to that of Mexico City for example.
Actually fertility in Mexico is already below replacement.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-UN?tab=chart&time=1950..latest&country=OWID_WRL~MEX
My how things are rapidly changing. Thank you
Actually, declining fertility is more widespread than you may suppose.
<iframe src="https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?end=2020&indicators=SP.DYN.TFRT.IN&start=1960&view=chart" width='450' height='300' frameBorder='0' scrolling="no" ></iframe>
Right as rain, M. Bill.
I am not worried about American TFR. We are the richest country in the world and have a long history of immigration: young and bright people world over would want to come to our country and become great American citizens.
It's just a phase where the elites have jammed up our minds with Xenophobia for political gain. That too shall pass like it did in our history.
Fertility levels are dropping greatly throughout the rest of the world as well. Not to mention, but too much immigration too fast is destabalizing.
I agree, we in the US will be fine. Our country is a desirable target for immigrants and our population density is still quite low. I, for one, would like to see us accept a lot more immigrants than we do.
And yet, as a solution to collapsing fertility rates immigration is clearly not going to work. Immigration is zero sum: If we gain someone else loses.
To Linus and Stephen, this an interesting observation about the US still being attractive to young and bright people world over.. I am an immigrant, I have been in California for 20 years and all this time I have been surrounded by other immigrants and I see the enthusiasm over the US cooling off in our circles. Let me share a couple of stories here. They do look like anecdotal evidences, but they also somewhat highlight an overall mood in the professional immigration circles here, in the Silicon Valley and beyond.
A client of mine, an MD from New Jersey was brought here from Russia in the early 1990s. She went to high school and got her degree in the US and worked here for a number of years. In 2019 while in her mid 30s, she went to her native Krasnoyarsk for a year of sabbatical with her husband and two kids and they havenтАЩt been back to the US since. She says she doesnтАЩt want to; mainly because of the kids. She is concerned about the suffocating children vaccinations requirement (she is an MD), and an overall climate in the US.
A fellow mom from the German school here in the Silicon Valley made a decision to move back to Berlin after her two kids were walking home from the train station and police car stopped them and drove them home giving parents a warning of the unsafe behavior. This happened in Mt.View, in the heart of the Silicon Valley, couple of miles away from Google HQ. It was a ten minute walk through a lively downtown and the kids were 7 and 9 years old. The fact that such situation can be considered тАЬunsafeтАЭ is insane for Europeans. Her husband was on an тАЬOтАЭ Visa at Google, itтАЩs a тАЬspecial abilitiesтАЭ visa, granted to highly skilled professionals with unique skillset and it is easily transferred into Green Card. They abandoned their Green Cards and went back to Germany citing better environment for kids.
.
Another friend of mine here in the Silicon Valley is from Crimea (Russia-Ukraine-Russia-Rinse-Repeat). She and her husband are US citizens and their three kids were born in California. Every summer she spends in the Crimea. She flew her brood to the Crimea this summer as well, while the war is in progress. She just came back, kids had wonderful time over there making friends and exploring surroundings unattended. She is certain she will get her kids out of California and preferably from the US and will not allow their puberty years to be spent here. Her husband, who is a Russian immigrant as well, works at Apple and is concerned that he wonтАЩt find a good position in Europe, let alone in Russia. There are tensions about it between the two of them, but she is determined to take her children away from the US at least during their formative puberty years.
.
I myself am frantically looking for ways to move my California born kids out of the Silicon Valley into a healthier and less robotic environments. I consider Italy, Eastern Europe or Brazil, given that Russia and Ukraine are no options for us right now.
.
These stories do sound like anecdotal evidences. Yet, they also highlight an overall mood in the immigrant circles, at least in the post-Soviet and in the European professional immigration that I am exposed to. These are all people with advanced degrees and highly paid positions in the leading, global companies, who once viewed the US as a very attractive destination.
I think that right now the US to professional immigrants is what Ivy League school to the high school age kids parents. The momentum is still there, the admissions into the Ivy League schools are still sought after, but some serious exodus has begun and this exodus includes the most independent, daring minds, that America has historically prided itself for.
The risk that these schools will loose their appeal to the brightest minds out there is serious. And so is the US attractiveness to the professional immigration. Truth is, it mainly applies to Europeans. Chinese and Indian immigrants here, in the Silicon Valley seem to be thriving due to their higher numbers and their own, more insulated cultures; they do not seek to merge with the Americans, the way Europeans and Post-Soviet tend to seek. This is fine, but it may draw a very different cultural landscape.
I will be happy to be wrong and to see that this is a short phase and that in the next couple of years it will be over and my concerns turn out to be a mere paranoia as we all merge into some beautiful, multi-faceted melting pot. However, with the dynamic right now, I am forced to spend my energy to find a better place for my kids outside of the US, because the tragic wisdom of my native Russia has taught me that тАЬa phaseтАЭ can last a life-time of a generation. Or two.
DonтАЩt worry some of us have three or four to keep up haha. I love my babies. In all seriousness I realize that a small portion of the population that has more kids wonтАЩt totally outweigh the majority who are not, but I think the kids of the small portion will have seen a larger family modeled to them.
You're right. As currently envisioned, it's not.