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Francis Fukuyama: Why Iran Won’t Surrender
Iranian police stand guard on an armored vehicle during a rally pledging allegiance to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, on March 9, 2026. (Morteza Nikoubazl via Getty Images)
Trump’s call for unconditional surrender ignores the IRGC’s decentralized command and the harsh lessons of past wars.
By Francis Fukuyama
03.09.26 — International
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Of the many questionable decisions President Donald Trump has made with regard to Iran, one of the strangest was his declaration last Friday that the United States would demand “unconditional surrender” from Tehran. When Trump launched the attack with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, he was obviously hoping for a quick victory, something like the outcome he achieved when he snatched President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela in January. But the war expanded across the Middle East, with Iran shooting missiles and drones at American allies and bases all over the Persian Gulf. It was clear that what remained of the Iranian leadership was not about to capitulate, and that the conflict could drag on—as Trump himself admitted—for weeks.

Normally, a smart leader in such a situation would try to lower expectations and declare an achievable objective in the war, such as degrading the better part of Iran’s ability to strike targets with ballistic missiles and drones. This would offer an opportunity for Trump to declare victory and disengage. Instead, Trump did the opposite.

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Francis Fukuyama
Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Tags:
Donald Trump
Iran
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