If you’re one of the 90 million Americans who works a white-collar job, then in the past few months you’ve received a clear message: You’re probably going to get screwed. AI will take half of all white-collar jobs in the next four years, according to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei; expect 20 percent unemployment. “Nothing that can be done on a computer is safe in the medium term,” wrote AI investor Matt Shumer in a viral post. Last week week a viral scenario from Citrini Research projected a “human intelligence displacement spiral” caused by AI within two years.
But if doom is coming, no one’s told the bosses. A recent survey of 6,000 chief executives across four countries found that they expect AI to cut employment by just 0.7 percent over the next three years. Another recent analysis of over 12,000 European firms found that so far, AI adoption increases workers’ productivity without having any impact on employment. Research from late last year, meanwhile, found that more AI-exposed industries experienced either the same or more employment than less-exposed industries—not job losses.
