It’s Tuesday, January 13. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Pastor Ryan P. Burge on why the pews are empty; Kat Rosenfield on the dangerous illusions that led to Renee Good’s death; Gabe Kaminsky on Trump’s botched crackdown on nonprofits. Plus: River Page asks, “Is woke back?” All that and more.
But first: Why 2026 could be a turning point in world history.
“What President Trump will do next, only he knows. The world will have to keep waiting and guessing. I’m not gonna broadcast it.”
So said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday. She was answering a question on Iran, and how the president would respond to Tehran’s bloody crackdown on protesters. (And later in the day, the president made his latest move: a 25 percent tariff on all countries doing business with Iran.) But Leavitt could have been talking about any number of foreign-policy questions when she said that “the world will have to keep waiting and guessing.”
Trump’s decisions have driven world events so far this year, and a great deal rests on what the president will do next. That’s always true—but especially at the start of 2026.
In our lead story today, Matt Pottinger, who worked as deputy national security adviser during Trump’s first term, and Roy Eakin argue that 2026 could prove to be the most consequential year in world history since 1989. They survey the world’s flashpoints, from Tehran to Taiwan, and ask: Will 2026 mark the start of a new era? And will that era bring peace and prosperity—or disorder and conflict?
—Oliver Wiseman
Tune In: Will the Iranian Regime Fall?
For the latest on the situation in Iran catch up on our Monday livestream, featuring three experts on the country: Michael Doran, Roya Hakakian, and Behnam Ben Talebu. They talk to host Rafaela Siewert about what is unfolding in Iran, what will come next, and whether the U.S. will take action.
And for a look at a troubling truth about how the Iranian protests are being viewed in the West, read the latest from Yascha Mounk. “The sympathies of every single person who believes in freedom and equality and the basic rights of women should be with those courageous millions in Iran,” writes Yascha. “And yet, across the West, there has been a deafening silence in the face of these historic protests.” Read his full op-ed:
It’s the second week of 2026, and if you’ve already given up your new year’s resolutions, don’t worry: You’re not alone. But how do you make resolutions that actually improve your life? There’s one key difference between the ones that stick and the ones that don’t, writes Arthur Brooks, our new happiness expert in residence. Read his latest column to get the skinny.
When protest marches became a hobby for everyone from influencers to aging Boomers, our politics began to take on a surreal, fantastical quality. For evidence of why that’s so dangerous, look no further than Minneapolis. In her latest column, Kat Rosenfield dissects the pervasive sense that ICE agents are more like cartoon villains than legitimate law enforcement, and argues that the killing of Renee Nicole Good proved that this is a dangerous illusion.
Over the weekend, comedians Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang had to apologize for innocuous comments they made about Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett. The whole affair had a distinctly 2020 feel to it, which left River Page wondering: Is woke back? Did it ever die? Read his latest for answers.
Is the West experiencing a revival of Christianity? There’s certainly one happening online and in many Catholic and Orthodox churches. But at the same time, mainline Protestant churches are dying. Sanctuaries once full of people worshipping side by side now sit half-empty. Political scientist and Baptist pastor Ryan P. Burge has a theory about why.
What do Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani have in common? When it comes to their housing policies, it’s a lack of respect for the basic laws of economics. Or so argues Judge Glock in his column on the populist fever taking over our housing debate, from Mamdani’s rent freeze to Trump’s ban on corporate investment in single-family homes.
After Charlie Kirk was killed in September, Donald Trump vowed retribution against groups that he said have done “tremendous damage to our country.” But today, these threats have come face-to-face with reality. Even conservatives think the Trump administration is “playing whack-a-mole.” Gabe Kaminsky reports on the legal and logistical roadblocks to Trump’s war on the nonprofit sector—and whether the president can deliver on his promised crackdown.
The man who allegedly started a fire at a Mississippi synagogue over the weekend admitted to targeting the building because of its “Jewish ties,” the FBI said yesterday. No one was injured other than 19-year-old suspect Stephen Spencer Pittman. “We’re all devastated, but we are ready to rebuild,” said Michele Schipper, a former president of Beth Israel Congregation.
The White House is considering a trade deal with Taiwan, which could be announced as soon as this month. The deal would reduce the tariff rate on exports from the island nation and require its largest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, to commit to building more semiconductor factories on U.S. soil.
Nearly 15,000 New York City nurses are on strike, demanding higher wages, more favorable staffing ratios, and more hospital security staff to curb violent incidents. In anticipation of the strike, some hospitals contracted travel nurses and reserved hotel rooms, while others canceled surgeries and sped up patient discharges, The New York Times reported.
Financial stocks sank yesterday after President Trump proposed a 10 percent interest rate cap on credit cards. The American Bankers Association warned that a cap would hurt consumers and small businesses by shrinking credit access.
Miami Beach’s Fisher Island unseated Atherton, California, as the most expensive U.S. zip code, according to a PropertyShark analysis. The island community has a median sale price of $9.5 million, a onetime $500,000 membership fee, and is accessible only by ferry, yacht, or helicopter.
The federal government is sending around 1,000 additional agents to Minneapolis in the wake of last week’s fatal ICE shooting, CNN reported. The increase is a part of Operation Metro Surge, which federal officials said was conceived to target undocumented Somali immigrants in Minnesota. For our on-the-ground coverage of the turmoil in the Twin Cities, read Olivia Reingold’s report.
Senator Mark Kelly sued the Defense Department over the decision to cut his retirement pay because of a social media video in which he urged servicemen to “refuse illegal orders.” In a letter of censure to Kelly, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the video “seditious” and “clearly intended to undermine good order and military discipline.”
Mattel debuted a Barbie with autism, adding to a collection of medically diverse dolls including Barbies with Down syndrome, blindness, and type 1 diabetes. Each autistic Barbie will come with a fidget spinner, noise-canceling headphones, and a pink tablet based on the devices some nonverbal autistic people use to communicate.
Will the Iranian regime fall? Not if JD Vance can help it.
What happened in Mississippi is just horrendous but why should we not expect it.
The MSM will probably support the arsonist and blame the Jews as is always the case.