“I think some of these things need to be done. I just don’t think we should risk the kind of chaos that could push us into a recession.” Lloyd Blankfein helps us make sense of the markets.
I mean I'm bullish long term on America but if you read between the lines Blankenship basically says "if you need money in the next five years, get the heck out of the stock market". That is NOT exactly a ringing endorsement.
Wow. It’s good to know “Lloyd Blankfein isn’t sweating…”
I guess the Fed quietly printing cash to buy up the busted Mortgage Back Securities Blankfein’s crew didn’t manage to dump before the 2008 cat was out of the bag, might be helping a bit in that regard.
How many people live in Blankfein’s city on a hill?
"Let’s do this thought experiment. Let’s say you’re an American ally and you’re disillusioned with us. You want to hedge your reliance on us. And so you do more activities with China incrementally, which seems to be happening. That’s the worry."
I know, substitute Russia for China in that thought experiment and ask Europe "how did that work out?"
The issue, at least to me, is that no one seems to have learned that it's bad policy to get intertwined with unreliable allies. And for all that trump is not reliable comparatively, America is far more reliable than China. China, which has supported Russia. Which invaded Ukraine. Which has cost about $100billion to defend. Which is real money.
That said, choices that are good for society in the longer term might not be good for business in the shorter term. And there's the challenge. That's how you get China owning a big chunk of a major port in Germany.
"How would we be the arsenal of democracy if we don’t know how to manufacture anything anymore?"
At the high-end, it really is essential to have a deep understanding of manufacturing if you want to design the best products. Which usually comes from having manufacturing. Simply going for price, but losing the ability to understand how to make things is a short term win and a longer term risk.
A simple example. We no longer make TVs. Or really displays of any sort. But they are essential in things like avionics. Which are very high value. If our supply of these components is cut off, an entire essential industry takes a major hit, as does our ability to defend ourselves and our allies.
As a European, I want us to pay what's fair for defense, but I reject the premise that the delta is perhaps the reason Americans don't also have "free" healthcare. The US pays 3x what the UK pays on healthcare per capita (or 4x when you consider subsidies). And the UK doesn't also subsidise healthcare like the US does. So it's not our "free" healthcare that's the problem, it's inflated costs and profit that's screwing Americans.
Good conversation overall though. I wonder how much insider trading has been going on with these swings.
For the US, it just isn’t an option to resign all but the wealthiest to an NHS-type healthcare system. We learned the hard way (1861-5) that attempting to institutionalize two different kinds of personhood doesn’t work here.
This conversation was fascinating, an A+ example of "be curious not judgemental".. Something else is almost certainly going on here, and anyone who isn't entertaining all realistic possibilities is intellectually lazy.
Perhaps the best thing about TFP is that knowledgeable people want to talk to them. They’re relatively agenda free. Blankfein has that most valuable of assets: perspective. I found this discussion very valuable.
I have zero confidence in the Trump Admin. acting to avoid a recession. It's a clown car and its core values (if it can be said to have any) are the enrichment and aggrandizement of Trump. The tariffs are about his need to bully smaller neighbors and force submission. (But the cool kids still won't play with Donnie, just like when he was growing up.)
I'm thrilled to see the Free Press' remarkable growth under Bari Weiss' leadership. Her vision, joyful spirit, and impressive intelligence are truly well-deserved. Bringing Dennis Berman on board as publisher and president is a fascinating move — a twofer, both financier and journalist — and may signal just how ambitious their growth plans really are.
I love the FP project and Bari's commitment to intelligent conversation that looks at topics from all angles. But, if this is going to be an ongoing video presentation, she needs to get a fidgit toy (and leave her face alone). She reminds me of some of my ADHD students.
It’s called negotiating. You have to listen to what he said starting last week and then each day instead of just knee jerk “orange man bad.” You people are pathetically attached to the wrong % of the 80/20 rule.
I’m not sure what you’re asking. He’s the President and he is negotiating on behalf of the American people. The voters overwhelmingly elected him to get several things done including this.
The whole premise is China might be gearing up to take Taiwan and this is a preemptive "you can deal with China or you can deal with USA but you must choose". If that turns out to be true, your question looks short sided. Americans get a lot more out of a world where we aren't screwed with by China.
China has been gearing up to take Taiwan for decades and we've been friendly to Taiwan for decades. We tariffed Taiwan after years of them buying military equipment from us and providing cheap goods and services to us. They build 70% of the world's most impressive semiconductors. These semiconductors are the foundation for anything electronic. Do you want this company in the hands of China or Taiwan?
It is 1000% in the USA's (plus the world's interest) to keep Taiwan separate from China and aligned with the west. Taiwan wants this as well. But it looks like we're doing everything in our power at the moment to destroy, not build relationships around the world. There is nothing we have done in the past 2 months to demonstrate to countries we are a reliable trading partner.
The Magaverse doesn't understand the importance of building allies and partnerships with western-aligned countries - especially with this fabulously new and incoherent understanding of how trade deficits work. In the event of China taking over Taiwan, do you really think this administration is going to side with Taiwan and come to their rescue? Before answering, write out exactly why Taiwan is or is not important to the west's interests. Read about what the fallout would look like should they be invaded or taken over by China, from both a US and global standpoint. Actually read about it, don't just watch a video clip of some youtuber talking about it. This book is solid and will provide you a good understanding of the current situation and what is at stake. https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324021308
The current administration's entire foreign policy thus far has been :
1. go soft on Russia
2. screw the world including our allies.
It is doing nothing but hurting us and our friends.
Thank you for discussions that attempt to help us be informed voters. Intelligent discussions that speak to both sides of an issue are helpful.
I mean I'm bullish long term on America but if you read between the lines Blankenship basically says "if you need money in the next five years, get the heck out of the stock market". That is NOT exactly a ringing endorsement.
Wow. It’s good to know “Lloyd Blankfein isn’t sweating…”
I guess the Fed quietly printing cash to buy up the busted Mortgage Back Securities Blankfein’s crew didn’t manage to dump before the 2008 cat was out of the bag, might be helping a bit in that regard.
How many people live in Blankfein’s city on a hill?
Just one.
Care to guess who?
This was very good.
"Let’s do this thought experiment. Let’s say you’re an American ally and you’re disillusioned with us. You want to hedge your reliance on us. And so you do more activities with China incrementally, which seems to be happening. That’s the worry."
I know, substitute Russia for China in that thought experiment and ask Europe "how did that work out?"
The issue, at least to me, is that no one seems to have learned that it's bad policy to get intertwined with unreliable allies. And for all that trump is not reliable comparatively, America is far more reliable than China. China, which has supported Russia. Which invaded Ukraine. Which has cost about $100billion to defend. Which is real money.
That said, choices that are good for society in the longer term might not be good for business in the shorter term. And there's the challenge. That's how you get China owning a big chunk of a major port in Germany.
"How would we be the arsenal of democracy if we don’t know how to manufacture anything anymore?"
At the high-end, it really is essential to have a deep understanding of manufacturing if you want to design the best products. Which usually comes from having manufacturing. Simply going for price, but losing the ability to understand how to make things is a short term win and a longer term risk.
A simple example. We no longer make TVs. Or really displays of any sort. But they are essential in things like avionics. Which are very high value. If our supply of these components is cut off, an entire essential industry takes a major hit, as does our ability to defend ourselves and our allies.
As a European, I want us to pay what's fair for defense, but I reject the premise that the delta is perhaps the reason Americans don't also have "free" healthcare. The US pays 3x what the UK pays on healthcare per capita (or 4x when you consider subsidies). And the UK doesn't also subsidise healthcare like the US does. So it's not our "free" healthcare that's the problem, it's inflated costs and profit that's screwing Americans.
Good conversation overall though. I wonder how much insider trading has been going on with these swings.
For the US, it just isn’t an option to resign all but the wealthiest to an NHS-type healthcare system. We learned the hard way (1861-5) that attempting to institutionalize two different kinds of personhood doesn’t work here.
Was going to say the same thing. But you said it perfectly.
This conversation was fascinating, an A+ example of "be curious not judgemental".. Something else is almost certainly going on here, and anyone who isn't entertaining all realistic possibilities is intellectually lazy.
This was excellent; going into it I thought it would be terrible.
Perhaps the best thing about TFP is that knowledgeable people want to talk to them. They’re relatively agenda free. Blankfein has that most valuable of assets: perspective. I found this discussion very valuable.
Thank you this was fascinating
I have zero confidence in the Trump Admin. acting to avoid a recession. It's a clown car and its core values (if it can be said to have any) are the enrichment and aggrandizement of Trump. The tariffs are about his need to bully smaller neighbors and force submission. (But the cool kids still won't play with Donnie, just like when he was growing up.)
The cool kids have hopped on planes to go hang with Donnie.
I'm thrilled to see the Free Press' remarkable growth under Bari Weiss' leadership. Her vision, joyful spirit, and impressive intelligence are truly well-deserved. Bringing Dennis Berman on board as publisher and president is a fascinating move — a twofer, both financier and journalist — and may signal just how ambitious their growth plans really are.
Will this be in the podcast feed ? Only got 1:30mins ?
I listened to the entire podcast. So try again.
Is there a way we subscribers can listen to these in a podcast app or is the browser the only way?
You can listen on Apple (w ads) . Or I think also Spotify.
I love the FP project and Bari's commitment to intelligent conversation that looks at topics from all angles. But, if this is going to be an ongoing video presentation, she needs to get a fidgit toy (and leave her face alone). She reminds me of some of my ADHD students.
So….no more tariffs. That was quick. That makes us look like idiots. Trump can’t even stick to this principle, on which he ran?
It’s called negotiating. You have to listen to what he said starting last week and then each day instead of just knee jerk “orange man bad.” You people are pathetically attached to the wrong % of the 80/20 rule.
Did he get a lot of concessions from these negotiations?
I’m not sure what you’re asking. He’s the President and he is negotiating on behalf of the American people. The voters overwhelmingly elected him to get several things done including this.
What did the American people get out of this?
The whole premise is China might be gearing up to take Taiwan and this is a preemptive "you can deal with China or you can deal with USA but you must choose". If that turns out to be true, your question looks short sided. Americans get a lot more out of a world where we aren't screwed with by China.
China has been gearing up to take Taiwan for decades and we've been friendly to Taiwan for decades. We tariffed Taiwan after years of them buying military equipment from us and providing cheap goods and services to us. They build 70% of the world's most impressive semiconductors. These semiconductors are the foundation for anything electronic. Do you want this company in the hands of China or Taiwan?
It is 1000% in the USA's (plus the world's interest) to keep Taiwan separate from China and aligned with the west. Taiwan wants this as well. But it looks like we're doing everything in our power at the moment to destroy, not build relationships around the world. There is nothing we have done in the past 2 months to demonstrate to countries we are a reliable trading partner.
The Magaverse doesn't understand the importance of building allies and partnerships with western-aligned countries - especially with this fabulously new and incoherent understanding of how trade deficits work. In the event of China taking over Taiwan, do you really think this administration is going to side with Taiwan and come to their rescue? Before answering, write out exactly why Taiwan is or is not important to the west's interests. Read about what the fallout would look like should they be invaded or taken over by China, from both a US and global standpoint. Actually read about it, don't just watch a video clip of some youtuber talking about it. This book is solid and will provide you a good understanding of the current situation and what is at stake. https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324021308
The current administration's entire foreign policy thus far has been :
1. go soft on Russia
2. screw the world including our allies.
It is doing nothing but hurting us and our friends.