President Donald Trump has a high opinion of his own persuasive power and political instincts. That is not without justification. Despite massive derision from pundits, he’s managed to win two out of the last three presidential elections. Clearly, there are some things he understands about American voters that establishment politicians and commentators do not.
But lately his political star has been falling, as is vividly illustrated by a new, widely cited poll from The New York Times and Siena College, which measures Trump’s approval rating down at 37 percent. Democrats’ lead on the generic House ballot, by the same poll, is up to 10 points. That means Trump’s approval is now below President Joe Biden’s in the first polls after Biden’s disastrous July 2024 debate, when he froze and babbled repeatedly in front of millions of American viewers, causing him to drop out of the race for reelection.
And these are not outliers; both figures are only a bit worse than rolling averages calculated by various poll aggregators. Trump’s descent in the polls refutes a claim made by many of his supporters, who long have argued that the polarizing president had both a “low ceiling” of support but also a “high floor.” So much for that—Trump is now down in the Biden basement.
What’s behind this disaffection with Trump and his administration?
