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The Problem with Trump’s Venezuela Plan
Trump is trying to transform Venezuela in a way that’s incompatible with the regime he has left in charge, writes Elliott Abrams. (Photo by Carlos Becerra/Getty Images)
The president is relying on the current regime to guide a transition to a Venezuela that is a free, democratic, prosperous, capitalist U.S. ally. That’s absurd.
By Elliott Abrams
01.11.26 — International
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A week after the spectacular raid that captured Nicolás Maduro, little else has changed in Caracas and the action is in Washington.

In Caracas, the regime remains fully in charge. While there are concessions—some real, some merely rhetorical—for the Americans, none of them compromise the plenary power of the gang that has ruled under Chávez and Maduro. The ministers of defense and interior, both indicted drug traffickers, remain in place. Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president by her brother Jorge, who heads the National Assembly. Chavista gangs are still used to prevent or punish demonstrations. As of Saturday, just 16 of the country’s 800 political prisoners had been released.

In other words, the regime is functioning internally exactly as it would have had Maduro been removed by a heart attack, and it is making the smallest concessions to Washington that it can.

Happily for the gang running the country, the American demands thus far revolve around oil and foreign interference rather than an opening in the political system. The gringos want control of the oil, but may accept the “Chevron Model” for that sector. Chevron now runs its own operations in Venezuela with limited regime interference and pays the regime in oil to cover taxes and fees. The regime sells that oil on the black market (due to U.S. sanctions) for the money it needs to keep the economy afloat and stay in power.

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Elliott Abrams
Elliott Abrams is senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House, and as Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela in the administration of Donald Trump.
Tags:
Foreign Policy
Venezuela
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