The Four Paths for a Post-Khamenei Iran
Demonstrators wave Iranian flags and hold posters while chanting anti-U.S. and anti-Israel slogans in Tehran, Iran, on March 1, 2026. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The U.S. is hoping for regime change in Iran, but what could happen if the Islamic Republic survives?
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The Iranian regime is at an inflection point. Less than a week ago, the Islamic Republic lost its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a daytime Israeli air strike that stunned the world.
And yet Khamenei’s regime fights on, firing ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. bases and diplomatic facilities, Israeli cities, Arab civilian infrastructure, and even at Turkey. The question is not whether Iran has changed. It undoubtedly has. The question is how much further it will change, in which direction, and what America will do about it.
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