Iran is at a crossroads. The largest and most sustained wave of nationwide protests since the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising in 2022 and 2023 is now sweeping the country. The current marches may soon eclipse them. What began in late December 2025 as demonstrations over a collapsing currency and rising living costs has spread rapidly across cities and regions. As repression has intensified and casualties have mounted, the protests have hardened into open demands for regime change.
No matter what happens next, there is no scenario in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact. Too much has happened; too many uncontrollable yet intersecting factors are conspiring to erode the regime’s power. But that does not mean that revolution is inevitable and Iran will blossom into a free open society once more.
The Islamic Republic has faced mass unrest before. Over the past 15 years, it has weathered repeated nationwide protest cycles. Each time, the pattern held: Demonstrations surged, the security services cracked down violently, and opposition networks fragmented. The regime survived intact.
That history matters—but it no longer governs the present moment.
