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Voters switching: this has to be well understood in the poli sci literature but it never seems to get mentioned in the press. Pleasing one base voter gets you one vote. Gaining a centrist voter gets you two, by adding one and denying one to your opponent. Seems like any policy decision or speech applause line should be developed with that reality in mind.

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Theory on murders: 1965 stats include more erroneous resolutions. That driven partly by unsophisticated policing practices and partly by lesser due process rights making convictions easier.

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I didn’t think I would like the Pompeo interview but so glad I was wrong! I learned a lot and appreciated the very intelligent, informative conversation.

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So, funny, I really didn’t like it. So many places he should have been challenged. Re: Kashoggi - “sure that was horrible but the Iranians do so much worse”. These interviews that let future candidates test their talking points wear me out.

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When fact-checking (sic) first reared its ugly ass years ago, I remember my initial reaction was, "So...who fact-checks the fact-checkers? And then who fact-checks the fact-checker fact-checkers? Ad infinitum?"

Anyone who relies on ANYTHING spewed by fact-checkers deserves a throat punch, IMO.

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I have no doubt whatsoever that if the "security ambassadors " in WEHO nicely ask machete wielding folk to drop their weapon, they will readily do so. Just ask nicely. Problem solved. Yay security ambassadors!

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What's maddening is the way that Amazon Prime video categorizes its movie selection for viewers. These days. it's all about "Black Voices" or "Celebrate Pride Month" now.

Well, let me be clear. Unlike the Oscar nomination committee, I don't select the movies I wish to view by filling in the banks on a diversity bingo card. I select movies on the basis of whether the story possibilities appeal to me or not. As for, 'Celebrate Pride Month', I mean... You're kidding, right?

If I'm going to celebrate anything at all, I'm going to celebrate the right of each individual to make their own lifestyle choice. That's it. Nothing else. Same goes for everybody. But I'm NOT going to 'celebrate' a month while I'm selecting a movie, and I'm not going to select any movie that lasts the entire month.

Who the Hell gave away the entire 'month' anyway? Whoever it is, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell them.

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Just a quick thought regarding the reduction in law enforcement’s ability to solve homicides. In recent years as law enforcement has been made to look like the villain in many communities, there develops a reduced sense of trust in officers patrolling those communities. This is not to say that law enforcement hasn’t made errors, but one unintended consequence of damning all officers for the terrible acts of a few, is that witnesses become less likely to come forward and cooperate in many investigations, to include those involving the death of a fellow human being. Secondly, as officers feel that they are being attacked, productivity decreases (See the Ferguson Effect). One of the primary ways homicides are solved in high crime communities is through arrests. Gang members, drug dealers, etc, have no incentive to cooperate in a homicide investigation until there is something in it for them; such as being arrested and trading their witness testimony for consideration in their current case. If officers are hesitant to make proactive arrests for fear of being terminated or prosecuted, this valuable source of witnesses no longer exists. Another unintended consequence. Ms. Bowles, if you look at my bio and would like to chat further, feel free to contact me.

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Jul 3, 2022·edited Jul 3, 2022

On the January 6th (so called hearings) I have some strong opinions. I see it having no purpose other than to keep the topic always in the public eye. Therefore, it is purely political. I’ve seen nothing other than an attempt to castigate Trump and anyone who supports him. That seems quite unnecessary since (a) he is not longer the president, and (b) he has already been unsuccessfully impeached twice. This looks a lot like an attempt to poison the water around Trump. If not, what else is being accomplished?

I also think that these efforts are pointless because I doubt that a significant portion of the population will change their position. We either saw an attempted coup, a legitimate insurrection, or we didn’t. The situation was deplorable and crimes were committed. You can assign as much or as little responsibility to Mr. Trump as you wish. Haven’t each of us already done so? Does it matter if you hate him more or less?

The star witness, in my opinion, was not credible. She faced no cross examination and was immediately countered by the secret service agents who were in the vehicle with Trump. She was clearly coached such that she could make soft allegations and her hearsay was not challenged during the “hearing.” Who cares if he threw a plate (I’d be shocked if he hadn’t had a childish fit when getting news he didn’t like)? And the statements about people walking around with AR-15s and Trump supposedly wanting to let them in just doesn’t hold water. But, what if everything she said is true? What is to be done about it right now?

Is this what we want to spend out time on? It is easy to forget that the “shoe will probably be on the other foot soon” and ask yourself if angry Republicans should arrange a special commission on Russia-gate? And, then only let Sinema and Manchin represent the Democrats? Or, maybe get one going on Hunter Biden and Joe’s alleged knowledge and involvement? Maybe we should do that. But, if we do, we are again taking our eyes off the ball and watching a degradation of our country while we are distracting ourselves with beating dead horses and banging the drum after the parade is over. I think we can be smarter. I hope we can be smarter than that.

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Jul 3, 2022·edited Jul 3, 2022

That being said, on the topic of the abortion law controversy, you are so correct that those of us on the tails of the opinion distribution bell curve are making it impossible for resolution. I see two ways to compromise. First, we can let blue and red states have their way for now. I think this approach to a fiery issue could at least partially tamp down the public ire. A great thing about our governmental structure is that we are a democratic republic, with a federal constitution that overarches our individual states that are allowed to legislate their own laws as long as they do not conflict with the federal constitution. At least I think it is great. We do have representation at multiple levels (local city/county, state, and national/federal levels). What I’m leading to is that almost all of us live in a particular state. We are able to move between states with near complete freedom. That means if we don’t like something about the state where we currently reside, we can choose to move to another state with laws, culture, climate, population density, and so on - a state we prefer. I live in California. There are many things I like about California and there are many things I don’t like here. The things I like (e.g., climate, breadth of experiences and services, and my family and friends) currently outweigh the things I don’t like (its primary political bent, homeless encampments, Hollywood, liberal law enforcement, earthquakes and brushfires, etc.).

Back to the abortion issue. California is a blue state and therefore I cannot foresee a time when it will shift to being mostly anti-abortion. That fact presents consternation for some and security for others. Since my family and friends are primarily anti-abortion (meaning they won’t be seeking an abortion), and I don’t have to be witness to abortions, this is not a deal breaker for me. I wish everyone could see things my way - but they don’t.

Similarly, a person who may live is Texas or Louisiana (I’ve had extended family in both) who are adamantly opposed to laws prohibiting abortion can make a similar decision to mine. Since none of my friends and relatives in those states are currently a female in her childbearing age, abortion isn’t a lever that will cause them to move to another state, i.e., one that legally supports abortion. And, indeed, if one of my nieces finds herself with an unwanted pregnancy in the future, they would most likely have the financial and personal support of family to travel to another state of their choice to have that procedure.

The second solution is a federal law being written and passed that would legalize abortion with limits, would satisfy most (clearly not all) of the population. I hope such a bill is not passed because I don’t view abortion as an inalienable right (I know some women might want to strangle me right now and others praise me). I know I’m more right than left in my opinions. But, I definitely believe that there must be some wiggle room for certain situations (conception due to rape, conception due to incest, conception that is a genuine lethal threat to the mother). I also believe that if we are going to prohibit abortion at a state level, each state must have its own funding to support the medical side of pregnancy if not already available, we must have stronger influence on the financial, practical and legal support responsibility of the biological fathers (i.e., it is a criminal offense for the biological fathers not to support the mother and share costs proportionate to income differentials). I’d like to see monies going to nonprofit/nongovernmental agencies to provide family support, adoption service, childcare, etc. I would be against actual government agencies providing such services, because government at all levels has proven to be ineffective, inept, hard to navigate and generally uncaring for our individual citizens. There should be financial incentives built to encourage a proliferation of such family-oriented nonprofit services for those who qualify financially and otherwise.

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So, on the topic of, well, everything. I’m embarrassed to say as a person who says he is committed to reconciliation, peace and understanding - that I had temporarily become a person who has been putting kerosene on the fire rather than quenching the fire with water. Not only does water quench flames, but it sustains life. So - to everyone who might be reading this. My apologies. I can and will do better.

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Inflation is mixed, so your statement about handing out money is just ridiculous! A quick look at inflation around the world, gives you no data to make statements like this.... Ug!

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On the inflation front, the over the top sanctions on Russia have boomeranged on the West. An economic nuclear war on Russia for supporting the Russian speaking Donbass region that has been under relentless assault by the Ukrainian Nationalists going back to 2014 after the U.S. orchestrated Maidon coup. Why no sanctions on the U.S. for the illegal invasion of Iraq and the carnage and regional destabilization that followed?

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I am interested in starting a grassroots effort to work with Senator Kayne and Senator Collins to pass a federal law that is moderate enough to earn 60 votes but still preserves the right to choose. I believe this is the only way we can protect all women’s rights in our country. I was struck by Nellie’s comment that she cannot seem to find organizations to work with that are interested in a moderate pro-choice answer. If you would be interested in being part of this idea, please email me at laurenenwhitehurst@gmail.com and if I garner enough support to get this going, I will be in touch.

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Nellie, thanks again for a sane, down the middle rundown of what happened this past week.

I especially appreciated your rational view of this week's January 6th commission. It seems a lot of smart, aware people (I'm looking at you Batya and Andrew Sullivan) decided that a 25 year's olds' hearsay, third-hand, 'someone told me it might have happened' testimony suddenly tipped the scales and convinced them that Jan 6 really was an insurrection.

After all, what motivation could she have? What could she possibly have to gain? I can't wait to hear from them again when it's announced in the next 30 day that the 25 year old has inked a media deal with CNN/MSNBC/WAPO (take your pick) - and that she's also been given a $1million dollar advance to author a tell-all book.

Nellie, you seem quite adept at seeing through the BS. Thanks.

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As always my favorite!!👏 I hope you’ll do TGIF forever!

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Common Sense gives me hope that maybe we can save America from the crazies of the left and right!

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