When Ali Khamenei survived an assassination attempt in 1981, he said “it dawned on me that our heavenly God wanted me to survive for a reason.” If so, God withdrew his license on Saturday. The liquidation of Supreme Leader Khamenei, loathed by most Iranians and in President Donald Trump’s words “the most evil man in the world,” is a game changer, marking a new era in the region.
All over the world, but especially all over Iran as well as in Syria and Lebanon where he was responsible for so much killing, people are dancing in celebration. During the massacres of the last weeks, many Iranians had begged America to intervene and attack the regime. Trump answered that call.
This is the great gamble of the greatest gambler of all the commanders in chief in American history. Its stakes are regional if not planetary; its cause is admirable and noble; its opportunity may be unique and providential; its prizes are desirable and constructive; but its risks are colossal; its perils eye-watering, and its consequences uncertain not just in the Middle East but for the world game—and American democracy itself.
Operation Epic Fury’s early successes are impressive, but once the dogs of war are unleashed, who knows where they will run? “War is the realm of uncertainty,” said Carl von Clausewitz. “Three-quarters of the factors on which action is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.”
The most urgent question now is whether the Iranian people—without arms or organization—will be able to exploit this moment to overthrow the regime. We must pray that somehow they can—though the trajectory from today’s first strikes to that moment of deliverance is so far unclear. Will Khamenei be the last Supreme Leader? Is there a preordained heir? Will the regime collapse now? Will a strong potentate like Ali Larijani, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, now take power? If so, could he be more radical and more dangerous? Will a new leader fight on or seek a deal?
