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Niall Ferguson: I’ve Seen the Future of War. Europe Isn’t Ready for It.
A Ukrainian serviceman fires a grenade launcher during training on October 22, 2024, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Yevhenii Vasyliev/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Hundreds of drones buzzing overhead like lethal hornets, watching with unblinking eyes for targets, others descending for the kill. Soon there will be thousands.
By Niall Ferguson
09.24.25 — International
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KYIV, Ukraine — The war of the future is already here—and you are not sufficiently scared of it. Unless, that is, you are Ukrainian.

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is now in its fourth year—or its 12th, if you date it from the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Since February 2022, the country has cycled through three wars. First it was a tank war, in which columns of Russian tanks fought a bungled blitzkrieg. Then it became an artillery war, in which the two sides traded fire from entrenched positions. Now, however, it’s almost entirely a drone war, with a supporting role for small and highly vulnerable infantry units.

The question is how well Europeans understand this. The people of Poland, Romania, Estonia, and (perhaps) Denmark all now know that Russian drones are capable of entering their airspace. But have they truly grasped what that implies?

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Niall Ferguson
Sir Niall Ferguson, MA, DPhil, FRSE, is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. He is the author of 16 books, including The Pity of War, The House of Rothschild, and Kissinger, 1923-1968: The Idealist, which won the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Book Award. He is a columnist with The Free Press. In addition, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle, a New York-based advisory firm, a co-founder of the Latin American fintech company Ualá, and a co-founding trustee of the new University of Austin.
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War
Europe
Ukraine
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