As Israel begins its ground invasion in Gaza, Niall Ferguson and Jay Mens on the hard strategic decisions facing the West.
By left wing standards Shermans march to the sea would be called a war crime, but the same people who attack Israel would never say that. War is terrible but when it is waged must be won. The same who scream ceasefire were filled with glee over mass rape and executions. Harden your hearts without becoming monsters and win.
"This is Iran’s war. But this administration refuses to acknowledge as much for fear that it will be compelled to act."
sad and succinct
“The latest estimates suggest that Iran would need only around four weeks to acquire enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb and would only need around six months to prepare a test”
If I die in a flash because of Barack Obama and his dipshit racist college buddy Rashid, I am going to be so pissed.
Iran is the root cause; all of these proxies are symptoms. So strike at the root. Israel can take out Iran’s ability to load vessels with oil for export. Take away $4-5 B in earnings per month and see how the regime fares.
Of course oil prices will shoot up. Too bad our President drained half of the SPR for political purposes earlier, as today’s situation is what it was created for. Saudi can fill the Iranian gap. Means more earnings for Saudi and Russia, but more pain for China. No perfect solutions, just compromises.
Don't count on Joe Biden to make the right call. He's been screwing foreign policy up since he voted to abandon the South Vietnamese in 1975.
This is Iran's war. And there is a reason why.
This intractable hatred towards Israel, dominates Irans actions, globally. Few know why and even fewer are willing to discuss the reason why.
The hard-Sunni branch of Islam has always labeled birth of Shia branch of Islam a Jewish conspiracy. Sunni-Shia schism of Islam was due Jewish machinations! And they have a culprit., Ka'b a convert to Islam, formerly a Jew. So the only way Ayatollahs' prove their mettle, justify truth of their own existence, is extinguish the Jewish race, forever!!!
If you understand this, you will recognize that long as the Ayatollahs rule, there can be no peace.
Let us all help Israel remove the Ayatollahs. From Lebanon, from Yemen and from Iran. Good things will happen.
We, for all our dithering, remain the baddest dog in the fight. Why are we afraid to act like it? How many times must an enemy say "Death to America" before we treat them as an enemy? There are, in fact, good guys and bad guys in the world. FFS, stop pretending we can just talk nice and persuade the bad guys to see the error of their ways. It's getting late. We followed this exact course in the 1930s, right down to the isolationist fringe. By the grace of God, we powered our way through with a superior industrial base. I'm not sure nuclear war will wait for that.
There remains the ultimate Actor in Israel's history. Consider (that) Yom Kippur, this past September 25, is the day that Heavenly decrees are issued regarding the coming year's blessings and judgements. The following week of Sukkot, October 1st thru the 7th (the 8th outside of Israel) is the time these decrees begin enforcement. The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy was ousted on Tuesday, the 3rd day of Sukkot. The Hamas terrorist massacre happened on the last day, Simcha Torah. IOW this (Jewish) year started out with uncommon upheaval.
If this drives the Jews back to the Torah and an affirmation of their Light to the Nations, we can expect wonderful outcomes. What if, in this profound massacre sadness, God is counting noses, noting who is on the right side of His history?
'The problem for Israel is that, unlike chess, this is a multiplayer game. And the main player on Israel’s side, the United States, does not yet appreciate that it too is under zugzwang. Israel and America have to act. And they have to act together. The alternative is victory not only for Hamas, not only for Iran, but also for the new Axis the Western world confronts.
As much as I like Niall, he is premature. There are two American carrier attack groups parked outside Lebanon as we speak with enough firepower to obliterate a city. Airpower has been increased at nearby bases. If Hezbollah were to begin firing their missile batteries towards Israel en masse - that is when America's mettle will be tested. Do we respond? If we do, as I expect we would, this article is moot. If we do not - then this article has merit. Not before.
Skip Gaza for the moment, crush the IRGC in Iran, and I mean “crush” them. Then, from a position of strength, circle back with Hamas and dictate the terms of their surrender. Niall is right, there are no easy, risk-free solutions. I vote for an approach that completely upends the Iranian-funded terrorism status quo.
A very good article, though as a former chess player I really don't like the zugzwang analogy. In chess, when you are in a zugzwang situation, you have essentially lost the game. Israel was indeed put into a very difficult situation, and it is true that every move is fraught with more pain and blood, but I hope it will find a way out. For sure the next months won't be easy... And we should think ahead how to make sure that Iran doesn't get the nuclear bomb. Imagine how much worse things would be after that. That people are not seriously trying to stop it is possibly the biggest blunders of our times, that will have devastating consequences.
If Israel is necessarily dependent on the Biden administration to act then I fear all is lost. I have hope that this will not be the case. That with great peril will come great opportunity to finally change the game.
Ferguson may ultimately be right - and the US will be drawn in to finally cap Iran and it's proxies instead of the useless, endless cozying. One thing this latest dustup must have proved to everyone, whether Democrat or Republican, is that Iran cannot be allowed, EVER, to obtain a nuclear device. But so far I am not convinced that this Israeli incursion won't end like the last three - with reduced Hamas military capability, if not destruction - when Israel will again go back to the job of containment as they have since 2005. And the US will hopefully learn another lesson on how to contain the great evil in Iran and shove the rose-colored Liberal glasses on this deadly adversary they've been using up their collective asses.
Gaza is a side-show. You must carry the fight to those responsible that benefit.
The hurt has to go to Iran, a very serious surprise military attack designed to take out the Ayaotollahs for deceit. Bomb that American university section to sand, destroy the Emir's palace and end him. Hit the section of Qatar that all those Hamas "leaders" live and get rid of them. Best would be complete destruction of all of Qatar, including all of its oil wells. Leave them burn. The smoke will lower global warming. Enough deceit.
Force the oil states to come crawling and set harsh conditions that require them to collectively destroy: All of Hamas. All of ISIS. All of Al Qaeda - root and branch. Tell them to bring their troops in to search house by house and root them out --- and then leave, and give up Gaza forever.
Is the goal of “eliminating Hamas” attainable and, if so, will it be a Pyrrhic victory? Hamas has had a lot more time to prepare than Isis did in Falluja. Are there other ways to degrade Hamas’ capabilities - longterm siege of Gaza City? “Bunker-busting” munitions to collapse the tunnels? Flooding the tunnels (which likely sit just above the water table)? And if Hamas is eliminated, will another, even more radical group pop up in a few years? I hope Israel’s leaders are acting strategically and not just out of rage or politics. I am heartsick at the prospect of losing so many young Israeli Jews…again.
But Israel has the ultimate deterrent
If it means the end of Israel or it’s continued role as the only democratic country in the Middle East
You can guess the outcome
So be it