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Is a Country Rising or Falling? Watch Its Currency.
Security forces monitor a pro-government rally on January 12, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. (Illustration by The Free Press; image by Stringer/Getty Images)
The collapse of the rial, the fall of the yen, and the strength of the dollar can tell you a lot about the world.
By Tyler Cowen
01.18.26 — International
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What’s in a currency value? If you are traveling abroad, it determines how expensive your trip will be. But in the geopolitical arena, currency values give you a rough guide as to which countries are rising or falling, and why.

Take Iran, a nation whose government may be on the verge of collapse. Or perhaps the theocracy will smash the resistance once and for all and move into full totalitarian mode. Either way, prospects for the country are highly uncertain.

It is thus no surprise that the Iranian currency, the rial, has fallen so low that on some exchanges its value is listed as zero. It’s not quite literally zero: The currency has not lost all of its value, as it still is used for many domestic transactions in Iran. But foreigners do not find it worth the trouble to trade the currency in open, liquid markets, given its very low value, uncertain future, and Iranian laws limiting trading in the currency at free market rates. Better to just forget about it.

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Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University and also Faculty Director of the Mercatus Center. He received his PhD in economics from Harvard University in 1987. His book The Great Stagnation: How America Ate the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better was a New York Times best-seller. He was named in an Economist poll as one of the most influential economists of the last decade and Bloomberg Businessweek dubbed him "America's Hottest Economist." Foreign Policy magazine named him as one of its "Top 100 Global Thinkers" of 2011. He co-writes a blog at www.MarginalRevolution.com, hosts a podcast Conversations with Tyler, and is co-founder of an online economics education project, MRU.org. He is also director of the philanthropic project Emergent Ventures.
Tags:
Finance
Iran
Japan
Economics
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