Iranians Take to the Streets. What Comes Next?

On Thursday night, thousands of Iranians flooded the streets of Tehran. “Death to the dictator!” they chanted. “Death to the Islamic Republic!”

It’s the largest escalation yet in nationwide protests that began nearly two weeks ago, fueled by years of economic crisis and political repression. By Friday morning, about 50 people were reported killed. More than 2,000 had been detained. The government cut internet and international phone service across the nation.

And still, the Iranian people march on.

These are only the latest in a series of protests against the regime, and this is not the first time commentators inside and outside the country have dared to ask whether the ayatollah’s brutal theocratic regime is about to fall. But time and again, the uprisings have been crushed by security forces, and order restored.

But how long can that pattern hold? And is this finally the moment it all comes crumbling down? With protests expected to intensify over the weekend, we turn to two expert voices to help us begin to answer these questions.

First, Iranian American journalist Roya Hakakian. Yes, she says, protests like this have happened before. But a number of factors make this uprising different. Chief among them is Donald Trump’s threat of a merciless American response should violence against protesters cross a line. But does Trump mean it? And will Iranian leaders take this threat seriously? Read Roya:

Next, Middle East expert Michael Doran argues the severe decline of the regime in Tehran is inevitable. Iran’s leaders may well succeed in suppressing these protests—but they’re all but destined to lose the bigger battle. Economic collapse, international sanctions, and devastating military defeats have left the fundamentalist theocracy weaker than at any point since its founding. “There is no scenario,” he writes, “in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact.” What happens next, though, is far from clear. Read Michael on why time’s up for the mullahs and what could come after them: