Between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. on Monday, somebody—or several somebodies—bought 6,200 oil futures contracts with a notional value of $580 million. Twenty-four minutes later, at 7:04 a.m., President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to announce that the administration was holding off on bombing Iran’s oil fields, and was instead in the process of negotiating a deal.
The effect of this on the markets was exactly what you’d expect. Stocks soared, while the benchmark Brent crude fell from $113 a barrel to $96, according to the Financial Times. Whoever that somebody—or several somebodies—was, the timing of their trade right before Trump’s announcement made them a lot of money.
Was it just good luck? That seems a little unlikely. As one trader for a major hedge fund told the Financial Times, “My gut from watching markets for the last 25 years is this is really abnormal.” He added, “It’s an unusually large trade for a day with no event risk. . . . Somebody just got a lot richer.”
