As talks between the U.S. and Iran begin this Saturday, the top priority is clear: The Strait of Hormuz must reopen, but not on Iran’s terms, write Niall Ferguson, Richard Haass, and Philip Zelikow.
Ayaan Hirsi Ali, a close friend of Sir Niall, wrote yesterday that the Islamic Republic did begin at a negotiating table and it will not end at a negotiating table.
I think the current clerics of Iran, the IRGC and the Basij represent a death cult; that is, these fanatics don’t care if all ninety million Iranians are annihilated as long as they control Iran.
During the “cease-fire”, Iran will receive weapons and intelligence from both China and Russia. The U.S. and Israel will again meet renewed resistance.
I am still waiting to see the Iranian people, who just wanted some help from Trump, to rise up and do their part to free themselves from this brutal regime. In my opinion, the regime must be destroyed and replaced by a government of their choosing.
Mr Ferguson, the great historian, in his ancient and recent historic guidance of the Straight has failed to mention the present kerfuffle is a result of the Israeli and American fusillade begun Feb 28, 2026. Prior to Feb 28, despite the history, ships of all nations passed freely without the Ferg Haas Zeli controls which will be necessary because "There has been a complete breakdown of trust among all the countries involved in the current war. It is unlikely that it will be restored in or after a 14-day time frame."
Great idea but not possible under the current Iranian leadership. The straight must be taken by overwhelming force. Move all resources out of Europe to save money and support the effort. Europe is lost and there is nothing we can do about the civilizational suicide.
The GCC states must undertake a crash program to build pipelines, like the Saudi East-West, to send oil and gas south and west. They must make the Persian Gulf irrelevant. It will take several years, but the existing pipeline has a capacity of about 25-33% of the oil that normally transits through Hormuz so it's very possible.
Most analysis of this that I've seen is it's all or nothing for Iran. It's not that Iran needs a gguarantee of its own access to the strait, it's that it needs to control it so that it can continue to threaten merchants that use it.
It's the only card it has left to be a hegemoni c regional power. The present regime will die out without that. I don't see why Iran will go along with this.
In my view, Trump should go ahead and bomb the bridges and power plants. It will probably take a year for the regime to die out. When the regime is overthrown, we can institute a Marshall Plan equivalent to pull them out of that economic mess.
It will likely result in civilian hardships. But the fact is, the civilian population does support the regime, even though most of that population does it involuntarily. Practically speaking, if not morally, they have to suffer the consequences of that support, if we are to see it overthrown.
One effective way to prevent Iran from gaining an advantage in the conflict would be for President Trump to step back from public commentary for a few days. A more restrained approach—avoiding exaggerated rhetoric, combative language, and unnecessary remarks—could help maintain credibility. At times, frequent and inconsistent statements risk undermining confidence.
Advisors such as Rubio and Vance might consider encouraging him to take a temporary break—perhaps a quiet, remote retreat with limited access to media and communication. Even a few weeks away from the spotlight could create space for a more measured, disciplined strategy to take shape. A secluded location—somewhere far from constant scrutiny—might help ensure that focus remains on thoughtful decision-making rather than reactive messaging. I would recommend Fiji or Christmas Island, for no less than a month's retreat! Or maybe a much-needed drunken stupor and withdrawl from the public eye. A state where he is loath to continue digging himself a hole from which it now seems he can never emerge.
How can this ever be achieved without regime change in Teheran? Genuine regime change?
Trump in his usual "idiot savant" fashion was closer to the truth when referred "civilizational extinction". How much more destruction of Iran will have to occur before they give up power in Iran and restore the Strait to de facto US control.?
Weekend talks are going nowhere.
The "sweet reason" of your proposal is compelling but not the IRCG.
So the real question is Trump actually capable of military escalation both in the
Strait and Kharg Island, along more crippling destruction of Iranian infrastructure?
Simpler plan: We recognize that the IRGC/Mullahs/ and Iran won't negotiate in good faith, because they never have.
We build a "shadow navy" consisting of the "shadow fleets" delivering Russian, Iranian and Venzuelan ships. Skeleton crews filled with sea water for ballast.
This shadow navy just became mine sweepers and they are used to convoy tankers through the Strait. Any ship hitting a mine - is put on auto pilot and directed towards the Iranian northern channel and towards Bandar Abbas port.
If that ship is leaking oil? If it sinks in that channel? So much the better. Sort of like the Highway of Death in Iraq circa 1991.
p.s. IF they bomb a GCC oil refinery? Then they should lose a 3 times refining capacity in Iran.
Would the revenue from Iran's future oil sales be sent directly to North Korea and applied to their bill for ICBMs and warheads? With the new thugs that replaced the old thugs, I don't see that much has changed.
Blowup Kharg Island. Iran loses their funding. China suffers. Europe gets what they deserve. US in control of world energy markets. That's what a Great Power would have done in previous centuries, without hesitation.
This Iranian regime will not abide by any agreement and now they know that even in their weakened state and using merely threats, the world will allow itself to be held hostage. No agreement will prevent the regime from closing the whole Persian Gulf again, whenever they wish.
Any effort to go after rebuilding of their drone and missile capabilities and the regime can close the Strait with ever more power to do so. In short order the drone and missile arsenal will make any conventional attack on Iran impractical because Iran will be able to do exactly what it has done in attacking all of its neighbors and closing the Strait, except they will have more rockets and missiles than they did 5 weeks ago. As the world will know that any attack will result in a massive retaliation by the Iranian regime by both closing the straight and attacking its neighbors in depth, there will be no credible deterrent to Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. Once they have a nuclear weapon, they need not use it. Merely having it means that no conventional attack would be attempted and the regime will be free to support its terrorist proxies in the region fighting conventionally. That is their game plan. It is not a secret. It is not complicated... and we are showing them now that their plan will work, despite massive victories for the West during this war.
The only viable solution at this stage is an end to the regime. There is no other alternative. There is no other way out but through. Anything short of this is a joke that leaves the mullahs in a stronger position long-term than when the war started. One cannot rely on Iran to not exercise control over of the Persian Gulf. The ability to control the Persian Gulf must be removed from the capability set of the regime and as it takes very little to make the world quake in their boots, this means meaningful and total regime change.
People keep speaking as if the question is between war and peace. The only question is between war now or a much worse war later.
"Force" safe passage? How naive. Do you remember the Japanese soldiers with rusty rifles pulled from the jungles of the South Pacific many many years after the end of WW2? Substiture Iranian religious zealots for Japanese, mountainous terrain for jungles and cheap drones for rusty rifles. Explain "force". You have 10 minutes.
The formula is easy: Drain the swamp. Get a new President and Cabinet with brains and competence, and a new Congress with the balls to act in the way the Constitution has mandated. Voila!
Formula for what exactly? In terms of Iran we've had presidents from both sides of the aisle for the last 47 years who have done exactly nothing to control the murderous thugs running Iran. Make all the sneering comments you want about Trump but at least he is the first president to actually take the fight directly to the Iranian theocratic goons.
cash which was seized Iranian assets which led to IEAE monitoring which did curtail enrichment. I'm not in any way saying this was a permanent solution. I'm not saying the Iranians are fair actors in an agreement. I'm trying to call out "yay go my team" comments
Maybe. The idea that a terrorist regime under fire will suddenly decide that it is in its interest to open the Strait is ludicrous. Here is the option for Iran. Any ships that leave Kharg will be seized. Any, no ships, it is an embargo unless they leave the Strait open.
Ayaan Hirsi Ali, a close friend of Sir Niall, wrote yesterday that the Islamic Republic did begin at a negotiating table and it will not end at a negotiating table.
I think the current clerics of Iran, the IRGC and the Basij represent a death cult; that is, these fanatics don’t care if all ninety million Iranians are annihilated as long as they control Iran.
During the “cease-fire”, Iran will receive weapons and intelligence from both China and Russia. The U.S. and Israel will again meet renewed resistance.
I am still waiting to see the Iranian people, who just wanted some help from Trump, to rise up and do their part to free themselves from this brutal regime. In my opinion, the regime must be destroyed and replaced by a government of their choosing.
Mr Ferguson, the great historian, in his ancient and recent historic guidance of the Straight has failed to mention the present kerfuffle is a result of the Israeli and American fusillade begun Feb 28, 2026. Prior to Feb 28, despite the history, ships of all nations passed freely without the Ferg Haas Zeli controls which will be necessary because "There has been a complete breakdown of trust among all the countries involved in the current war. It is unlikely that it will be restored in or after a 14-day time frame."
Great idea but not possible under the current Iranian leadership. The straight must be taken by overwhelming force. Move all resources out of Europe to save money and support the effort. Europe is lost and there is nothing we can do about the civilizational suicide.
The GCC states must undertake a crash program to build pipelines, like the Saudi East-West, to send oil and gas south and west. They must make the Persian Gulf irrelevant. It will take several years, but the existing pipeline has a capacity of about 25-33% of the oil that normally transits through Hormuz so it's very possible.
Most analysis of this that I've seen is it's all or nothing for Iran. It's not that Iran needs a gguarantee of its own access to the strait, it's that it needs to control it so that it can continue to threaten merchants that use it.
It's the only card it has left to be a hegemoni c regional power. The present regime will die out without that. I don't see why Iran will go along with this.
In my view, Trump should go ahead and bomb the bridges and power plants. It will probably take a year for the regime to die out. When the regime is overthrown, we can institute a Marshall Plan equivalent to pull them out of that economic mess.
It will likely result in civilian hardships. But the fact is, the civilian population does support the regime, even though most of that population does it involuntarily. Practically speaking, if not morally, they have to suffer the consequences of that support, if we are to see it overthrown.
One effective way to prevent Iran from gaining an advantage in the conflict would be for President Trump to step back from public commentary for a few days. A more restrained approach—avoiding exaggerated rhetoric, combative language, and unnecessary remarks—could help maintain credibility. At times, frequent and inconsistent statements risk undermining confidence.
Advisors such as Rubio and Vance might consider encouraging him to take a temporary break—perhaps a quiet, remote retreat with limited access to media and communication. Even a few weeks away from the spotlight could create space for a more measured, disciplined strategy to take shape. A secluded location—somewhere far from constant scrutiny—might help ensure that focus remains on thoughtful decision-making rather than reactive messaging. I would recommend Fiji or Christmas Island, for no less than a month's retreat! Or maybe a much-needed drunken stupor and withdrawl from the public eye. A state where he is loath to continue digging himself a hole from which it now seems he can never emerge.
Blah blah blah blah.
Give it a rest. You nattering nabobs have been saying the same thing about Trump for the past decade. He is who he is.
"He is who he is". is that working?
Yes.
I gave it a rest. 13 months worth. I voted for this blowhard and his cronies. No more.
Well keep trying then. I am sure it will work.
How can this ever be achieved without regime change in Teheran? Genuine regime change?
Trump in his usual "idiot savant" fashion was closer to the truth when referred "civilizational extinction". How much more destruction of Iran will have to occur before they give up power in Iran and restore the Strait to de facto US control.?
Weekend talks are going nowhere.
The "sweet reason" of your proposal is compelling but not the IRCG.
So the real question is Trump actually capable of military escalation both in the
Strait and Kharg Island, along more crippling destruction of Iranian infrastructure?
Simpler plan: We recognize that the IRGC/Mullahs/ and Iran won't negotiate in good faith, because they never have.
We build a "shadow navy" consisting of the "shadow fleets" delivering Russian, Iranian and Venzuelan ships. Skeleton crews filled with sea water for ballast.
This shadow navy just became mine sweepers and they are used to convoy tankers through the Strait. Any ship hitting a mine - is put on auto pilot and directed towards the Iranian northern channel and towards Bandar Abbas port.
If that ship is leaking oil? If it sinks in that channel? So much the better. Sort of like the Highway of Death in Iraq circa 1991.
p.s. IF they bomb a GCC oil refinery? Then they should lose a 3 times refining capacity in Iran.
Tit-for-tat won't work with the IRGC...
Would the revenue from Iran's future oil sales be sent directly to North Korea and applied to their bill for ICBMs and warheads? With the new thugs that replaced the old thugs, I don't see that much has changed.
Blowup Kharg Island. Iran loses their funding. China suffers. Europe gets what they deserve. US in control of world energy markets. That's what a Great Power would have done in previous centuries, without hesitation.
This Iranian regime will not abide by any agreement and now they know that even in their weakened state and using merely threats, the world will allow itself to be held hostage. No agreement will prevent the regime from closing the whole Persian Gulf again, whenever they wish.
Any effort to go after rebuilding of their drone and missile capabilities and the regime can close the Strait with ever more power to do so. In short order the drone and missile arsenal will make any conventional attack on Iran impractical because Iran will be able to do exactly what it has done in attacking all of its neighbors and closing the Strait, except they will have more rockets and missiles than they did 5 weeks ago. As the world will know that any attack will result in a massive retaliation by the Iranian regime by both closing the straight and attacking its neighbors in depth, there will be no credible deterrent to Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. Once they have a nuclear weapon, they need not use it. Merely having it means that no conventional attack would be attempted and the regime will be free to support its terrorist proxies in the region fighting conventionally. That is their game plan. It is not a secret. It is not complicated... and we are showing them now that their plan will work, despite massive victories for the West during this war.
The only viable solution at this stage is an end to the regime. There is no other alternative. There is no other way out but through. Anything short of this is a joke that leaves the mullahs in a stronger position long-term than when the war started. One cannot rely on Iran to not exercise control over of the Persian Gulf. The ability to control the Persian Gulf must be removed from the capability set of the regime and as it takes very little to make the world quake in their boots, this means meaningful and total regime change.
People keep speaking as if the question is between war and peace. The only question is between war now or a much worse war later.
"Force" safe passage? How naive. Do you remember the Japanese soldiers with rusty rifles pulled from the jungles of the South Pacific many many years after the end of WW2? Substiture Iranian religious zealots for Japanese, mountainous terrain for jungles and cheap drones for rusty rifles. Explain "force". You have 10 minutes.
Iran said they would never accept a ceasefire. Until Trump put the B-52’s in the air.
The Strait is opening.
45 years of Iran’s hundreds of billions in investment in weaponry is vastly gone.
Their air force and navy are gone.
Two to three layers of the regime’s leadership is dead.
The lead nuclear scientists are dead.
Their centrifuges are gone.
Their steel manufacturing is gone.
Their petrochemical factories are gone.
Hamas is negotiating.
Hezbollah just took a death blow.
Absolutely essential to eliminate Iran's control over the Strait permanently!
The formula is easy: Drain the swamp. Get a new President and Cabinet with brains and competence, and a new Congress with the balls to act in the way the Constitution has mandated. Voila!
Formula for what exactly? In terms of Iran we've had presidents from both sides of the aisle for the last 47 years who have done exactly nothing to control the murderous thugs running Iran. Make all the sneering comments you want about Trump but at least he is the first president to actually take the fight directly to the Iranian theocratic goons.
Let us know when this happens.
To do what exactly?
Send wooden pallets piled with cash to international terrorists, perhaps?
cash which was seized Iranian assets which led to IEAE monitoring which did curtail enrichment. I'm not in any way saying this was a permanent solution. I'm not saying the Iranians are fair actors in an agreement. I'm trying to call out "yay go my team" comments
I’m not a “yay go my team” kinda person. I was just calling out someone who is definitely a member of Team TDS.
Maybe. The idea that a terrorist regime under fire will suddenly decide that it is in its interest to open the Strait is ludicrous. Here is the option for Iran. Any ships that leave Kharg will be seized. Any, no ships, it is an embargo unless they leave the Strait open.