Everybody knows how wars begin but nobody knows how they end. In the last couple of weeks, the question of how the United States and Israel can conclude their war with Iran has become the most frequently asked by far whenever I appear on TV. My answer is not always one that the anchors like to hear.
Responding to this question requires, first, addressing President Donald Trump’s protean war goals. These range daily from merely destroying what remains of the Iranian navy and nuclear facilities, to also stopping Iran’s production of long-range missiles and its support for terror proxies, and, aspirationally, achieving regime change. There’s “practically nothing left to target” in Iran, Trump recently stated, “a little this and that.” Yet, in other posts, he threatened to strike Iran “20 TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” and said that “Death, Fire, and Fury will reign down on them.” To reporters at the White House, he said, “we’re not finished yet,” but speaking to Axios, he indicated that the war will end “soon,” and added, “Any time I want it to end, it will end.”
Neither I nor anyone else can determine which of these objectives are permanent and nonnegotiable and which are temporary and transient. Still, barring an irrepressible popular revolt or a coup within the Iranian regime, neither of which currently seems probable, there is only one way that this war can successfully end. Decisively defeating Iran requires an initial application of massive military power followed by a long-term strategy of total containment. The model must not be the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan, but rather the generational struggle against Soviet Communism—the Cold War that the United States ultimately won.
