Their tactical victory might very well turn out to be a massive strategic mistake for Hamas—if a people are weak, divided, and complacent, and you attack without actually winning the war right then and there... All you've done is unified them and renewed their resolve like nothing else possibly could. Short-sighted at best, suicidal at worst.
Technology is great but what one man can do another can undo. The biggest issue is the cynicism of the west. Too many episodes of House of Cards and wag the dog movies makes us think all leaders and parties are simply mouthing rhetoric for domestic purposes. The charter for Hamas, a group Gaza's voted for, was the destruction of Israel. As Miss. Weiss has recently reminded us, WHEN SOMEONE TELLS YOU WHO YOU ARE BELIEVE THEM.
Nonsense! Hamas has sacrificed the future of their children. The aid, million of dollars, has not gone to quality of life for the many but to the corrupt few and to terrorist activities. The country is in shambles and Israel is not the major reason why it is such a mess.
Nonsense! Sounds really macho, but headquarters in hospital basements demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice the weak and spare yourselves. How much of a sacrifice and difficulty is it to kill babies? !
May people see Hamas for the monsters that they are and the destruction that they bring to others and their country.
I’m loving the solid, in-depth reporting on The FP. It seems so true that a house divided against itself cannot stand. Perhaps America should take notice.
Technology is a TOOL to help with defense but, more and more, it's being viewed as the be-all and end-all. It will never be a replacement for boots on the ground and simple observation. Technology can be taken out much more easily than people realize and A.I. is still in its infancy despite what those selling the tech would like us to believe.
When I was younger and we were buying our first house, I had thought about buying a burglar alarm. My dad told me a dog was a much better and, more importantly, faster deterrent. Relying on sensors on a fence is a great BACKUP but should never be the primary means of security.
“The zero hour was kept completely secret. . . . Hamas leaders knew it. The number of people who knew about the attack and its timing could be counted on one hand.”
Then how exactly do you organise a thousand men and a bulldozer at the last minute. Even if a thousand men were arranged, no of them ask questions about what they're going to do, where they are going? They set up protests prior to normalise movement on the border. But only a handful of men knew?
'Meanwhile, rocket fire from the sky pushed Israeli soldiers at their bases into protective spaces, meaning they were unable to stand outside and watch for invaders. And when Hamas used drones to drop bombs on Israel’s communications towers, the IDF lost its chain of command.'
The multiple physical and remote surveillance all gone? No one has mobile phones to communicate?
'an Egyptian intelligence official had warned Netanyahu of a looming Hamas attack, but those warnings were ignored'
Did they really? Has this been verified? According to the linked article “No message in advance has arrived from Egypt and the Prime Minister has neither spoken, nor met, with the head of Egyptian intelligence since the formation of the government, neither directly nor indirectly.”
This has so many holes. I'm waiting to see what Seymour Hersh's next release says.
I can’t help but think that the pro Palestinian support in the US has a part in this tragedy. HAMAS feels somewhat safe in this tragedy because they know a strong voice will occur in the international community to stop Israel from destroying them.
Am I the only person here who sees that this attack, in it's crazy combination of subhuman barbarism, and its intricate planning, had to be an attack designed to provoke a response? It served no military purpose, and Gaza cannot win this war. They are so much weaker than Israel. This had to be Hamas acting on behalf of Iran in order to provoke a massively Israeli response... to, at best, A) put a damper on Saudi-Israeli regional cooperation, or worse B) to justify to the Muslim street a full-scale multi-front war on Israel. No other possibility is consistent with the careful planning and utter strategic stupidity from the point of view of Gaza. Hamas' government lives in Dotha, so they're safe, but they're not going to be able to govern anymore--this is baiting Israel into Gaza, sacrificing the people of Gaza like blind fools, and then launching a war. What about option C) this was Russia and China pushing Iran to push its proxies to open another front so that China can take Taiwan and Russia can have pressure taken off of it as it invades the Ukraine? I think this is the most urgent question around the whole paradoxical attack: carefully planned, and utterly senseless.
Over the last few days I heard several discussions suggesting that given the overwhelming might and sophistication of Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus the success of this attack can only be explained by some collusion on the part of the Israeli deep state and some outside actors . These conspiracy theories are all premised on the belief in a superior Israel and an inferior and unsophisticated enemy. This article shows that such a premise is simply wrong. This was simply a tactical and possibly strategic failure on the part of Israel.
SIGINT has always been a strength of Iran's intelligence service. They mostly don't use it. Once in a while, a method gets discovered, like communicating by editing of email drafts on the same account. Clever hacks. Other places islamists openly ride aircraft as passengers to spot aircraft and ground movements, relaying them live. This replaces radar. Etc.
I could think of many more ways to get messages through that are clandestine. But their main strength is OPSEC and need to know.
It takes an event like this to wake people up. All generals tend to fight the last war.
It is high time to recognize the thugs who use religion as a cover; January 6th or Jihad, for what they are. We need to recognize the difference between idealism and ideology.
After 1,200 dead civilians, Israel will pay absolutely no attention to international calls for a ceasefire. The Siege of Mosul took about 6 months. Mosul has about 1.8 million people. Gaza has 2.3 million. If Israel is relentless in attacking Gaza, using its firepower against any structure that Hamas shoots from without regard to human shields, it should take no more than 9 months to reduce Hamas to minimal military power. Israel can use tear gas or vomit gas in tunnels. It's against the laws of war, but Hamas is holding hostages, which is also a violation. Israeli casualties might be 900 to 1,200 dead. It might be worth it to eliminate Hamas.
Their tactical victory might very well turn out to be a massive strategic mistake for Hamas—if a people are weak, divided, and complacent, and you attack without actually winning the war right then and there... All you've done is unified them and renewed their resolve like nothing else possibly could. Short-sighted at best, suicidal at worst.
Technology is great but what one man can do another can undo. The biggest issue is the cynicism of the west. Too many episodes of House of Cards and wag the dog movies makes us think all leaders and parties are simply mouthing rhetoric for domestic purposes. The charter for Hamas, a group Gaza's voted for, was the destruction of Israel. As Miss. Weiss has recently reminded us, WHEN SOMEONE TELLS YOU WHO YOU ARE BELIEVE THEM.
“We sacrifice ourselves”.
Nonsense! Hamas has sacrificed the future of their children. The aid, million of dollars, has not gone to quality of life for the many but to the corrupt few and to terrorist activities. The country is in shambles and Israel is not the major reason why it is such a mess.
Nonsense! Sounds really macho, but headquarters in hospital basements demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice the weak and spare yourselves. How much of a sacrifice and difficulty is it to kill babies? !
May people see Hamas for the monsters that they are and the destruction that they bring to others and their country.
I’m loving the solid, in-depth reporting on The FP. It seems so true that a house divided against itself cannot stand. Perhaps America should take notice.
"We consider our dead to be martyrs."
We consider your dead to be rotting in hell.
Technology is a TOOL to help with defense but, more and more, it's being viewed as the be-all and end-all. It will never be a replacement for boots on the ground and simple observation. Technology can be taken out much more easily than people realize and A.I. is still in its infancy despite what those selling the tech would like us to believe.
When I was younger and we were buying our first house, I had thought about buying a burglar alarm. My dad told me a dog was a much better and, more importantly, faster deterrent. Relying on sensors on a fence is a great BACKUP but should never be the primary means of security.
“The zero hour was kept completely secret. . . . Hamas leaders knew it. The number of people who knew about the attack and its timing could be counted on one hand.”
Then how exactly do you organise a thousand men and a bulldozer at the last minute. Even if a thousand men were arranged, no of them ask questions about what they're going to do, where they are going? They set up protests prior to normalise movement on the border. But only a handful of men knew?
'Meanwhile, rocket fire from the sky pushed Israeli soldiers at their bases into protective spaces, meaning they were unable to stand outside and watch for invaders. And when Hamas used drones to drop bombs on Israel’s communications towers, the IDF lost its chain of command.'
The multiple physical and remote surveillance all gone? No one has mobile phones to communicate?
'an Egyptian intelligence official had warned Netanyahu of a looming Hamas attack, but those warnings were ignored'
Did they really? Has this been verified? According to the linked article “No message in advance has arrived from Egypt and the Prime Minister has neither spoken, nor met, with the head of Egyptian intelligence since the formation of the government, neither directly nor indirectly.”
This has so many holes. I'm waiting to see what Seymour Hersh's next release says.
I can’t help but think that the pro Palestinian support in the US has a part in this tragedy. HAMAS feels somewhat safe in this tragedy because they know a strong voice will occur in the international community to stop Israel from destroying them.
https://www.newsweek.com/unreported-foreign-donations-universities-foment-anti-semitism-opinion-1546139
Am I the only person here who sees that this attack, in it's crazy combination of subhuman barbarism, and its intricate planning, had to be an attack designed to provoke a response? It served no military purpose, and Gaza cannot win this war. They are so much weaker than Israel. This had to be Hamas acting on behalf of Iran in order to provoke a massively Israeli response... to, at best, A) put a damper on Saudi-Israeli regional cooperation, or worse B) to justify to the Muslim street a full-scale multi-front war on Israel. No other possibility is consistent with the careful planning and utter strategic stupidity from the point of view of Gaza. Hamas' government lives in Dotha, so they're safe, but they're not going to be able to govern anymore--this is baiting Israel into Gaza, sacrificing the people of Gaza like blind fools, and then launching a war. What about option C) this was Russia and China pushing Iran to push its proxies to open another front so that China can take Taiwan and Russia can have pressure taken off of it as it invades the Ukraine? I think this is the most urgent question around the whole paradoxical attack: carefully planned, and utterly senseless.
Over the last few days I heard several discussions suggesting that given the overwhelming might and sophistication of Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus the success of this attack can only be explained by some collusion on the part of the Israeli deep state and some outside actors . These conspiracy theories are all premised on the belief in a superior Israel and an inferior and unsophisticated enemy. This article shows that such a premise is simply wrong. This was simply a tactical and possibly strategic failure on the part of Israel.
You would assume Hamas has a strategy that goes beyond kill a bunch of humans in barbaric fashion then run back into Gaza and get pummeled.
SIGINT has always been a strength of Iran's intelligence service. They mostly don't use it. Once in a while, a method gets discovered, like communicating by editing of email drafts on the same account. Clever hacks. Other places islamists openly ride aircraft as passengers to spot aircraft and ground movements, relaying them live. This replaces radar. Etc.
I could think of many more ways to get messages through that are clandestine. But their main strength is OPSEC and need to know.
It takes an event like this to wake people up. All generals tend to fight the last war.
It is high time to recognize the thugs who use religion as a cover; January 6th or Jihad, for what they are. We need to recognize the difference between idealism and ideology.
خدافظ
After 1,200 dead civilians, Israel will pay absolutely no attention to international calls for a ceasefire. The Siege of Mosul took about 6 months. Mosul has about 1.8 million people. Gaza has 2.3 million. If Israel is relentless in attacking Gaza, using its firepower against any structure that Hamas shoots from without regard to human shields, it should take no more than 9 months to reduce Hamas to minimal military power. Israel can use tear gas or vomit gas in tunnels. It's against the laws of war, but Hamas is holding hostages, which is also a violation. Israeli casualties might be 900 to 1,200 dead. It might be worth it to eliminate Hamas.
Does anyone have a recommendation for a good book or two on either the history of Israel or the situation in Gaza?