Democrats’ dream of turning Texas blue has been a running joke in the Lone Star State for at least a dozen years. That’s how long it’s been since they nominated Wendy Davis, who became a fleeting progressive icon by protesting for abortion, as their champion to reclaim the governorship. Davis got blown out, and since then, Democratic candidates for governor and Senate have, at best, gotten close—despite their engineered hype from national media and loads of cash from outside donors.
Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades, and it seems that the only way they can gain ground is if Republicans let them. So guess what Republicans are thinking about doing?
The primary elections earlier this month were bad news for the GOP’s odds in November, because aggressive and unserious Republicans overperformed in so many of them. In the headliner race for a Senate nomination, attorney general Ken Paxton finished within one point of sitting senator John Cornyn and forced a run-off election set for May 26. Paxton’s good showing suggests that many primary voters aren’t focused on winning.
Over more than a decade in office, Paxton has lived up to Democrats’ worst caricature of a GOP officeholder. His scandals are only half of it, but they’re a good place to start. Former members of Paxton’s staff allege that he used his connections to the Trump Justice Department in 2019 to help a donor facing a federal investigation into his business. In return, the whistleblowers say, the donor paid to renovate Paxton’s home and offered a job to his mistress. Paxton denies all of it, but he never paid his home contractor until after he learned of the whistleblowers’ complaint, months after the renovation was completed. He also settled a federal securities fraud case against the donor in 2024. Prosecutors alleged that Paxton steered investors toward a tech start-up in 2011 without disclosing that he was on its payroll.
