Democrats had a very good night on Tuesday. They won every executive race in Virginia. Abigail Spanberger became the first female governor of Virginia and, of course, Zohran Mamdani will be the next mayor of New York. While one party is celebrating, another has reason to worry.
This has been a bad week to be a Republican. The party has been forcefully reminded of a law of political gravity so obvious it barely needs to be stated: Unpopularity is lethal—especially when you’re in power. And Donald Trump is not popular: His overall approval rating is 43 percent in the RealClearPolling (RCP) running average and 42 percent in the Silver Bulletin average. On the all-important issue of the economy, Trump’s approval rating is 41 percent in the RCP average. Poll after poll has shown voters believe he has gone “too far” in many areas, including in some where voters are sympathetic to the aims of his interventions, such as deporting illegal immigrants and cracking down on crime and public disorder.
And so the most compelling explanation for why Republicans performed poorly on Tuesday is the simplest: Their candidates were dragged down by the unpopularity of Trump and his actions and, critically, the perception that the president’s promised improvements in the economy have not materialized. Up and down the ballot in New Jersey and Virginia, Republicans did worse than expected, losing by 13 and 15 points in the states’ gubernatorial races, respectively.
