For some time now, the smart money has said that Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will pass on a White House run in 2028. Chuck Schumer’s Senate seat will beckon in two years, but the 36-year-old AOC, with a millennial’s ingrained desire for a proper work-life balance, may sit that one out too. It would be understandable, even rational, for her to wait another quadrennial cycle to make her next big move.
But in a Democratic field that lacks a front-runner—a field that might not settle on a favorite until late winter 2028—there is now a useful exercise to game out: What would a successful run for the Democratic nomination look like for this massive political talent?
Add to the mix the updated nomination calendar, the rise of the democratic socialists, the likely lineup of Democratic candidates, and AOC’s own recent professional and personal moves, and voilà—Ocasio-Cortez might have the cleanest and clearest path to the nomination of any Democrat. That’s in no small part because of a twin reality: Even as the super progressive wing of the party is ascendant and powerful, it paradoxically lacks an obvious presidential candidate to carry the banner. Besides AOC, the other two prospects are 84-year-old Bernie Sanders, viewed by most as too old to be a viable candidate, and California’s Ro Khanna, a House member with some appeal and a penchant for making news, but nothing like Ocasio-Cortez’s dazzling charisma and national following.
AOC and Sanders have partnered in a project to take over and reshape the Democratic Party, and while she is clearly the junior partner, Sanders is expected to defer to her if she is willing to run. Sanders could turn much of his movement and the thriving remnants of his presidential campaign operation over to his protégé, leaving her to dominate the progressive lane. That would give AOC an enormous advantage over her more establishment rivals, none of whom have access to a movement and all of whom would then be caught in a traffic pileup of entrenched, analogous candidates.
