Chances are you’ve played the guessing game. Wherever two or more people gather these days—at lunches, dinners, conferences, receptions—conversation inevitably turns to President Trump’s next move.
Questions multiply. How far will Trump go? Does he want trade deals, or will he maintain high tariffs to boost domestic manufacturing? Will he bargain with Chairman Xi, or has the hard decoupling of America and China arrived? Who does he listen to? This week the big unknown is Iran policy—will Trump allow negotiations over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program to drag on, or will he make good on his threats to use force as a last resort?
The guessing game is a Socratic exercise. It’s a test in intellectual humility. The winner is the first person to shrug his shoulders and admit ignorance. The trick is understanding that there are no fixed answers to the questions preoccupying Washington, D.C., and the capital cities of America’s allies and partners. Certainty is an illusion. Everything is flux.
