OTTAWA, Ontario—In an astonishing come-from-behind victory, Canada’s Liberal Party narrowly won Monday’s election under its new leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney.
As we went to press after midnight, it was still unclear whether Carney’s Liberals would win an outright majority or whether they would need to attempt to form a government through an alliance with minor left-wing parties. However, it was still a remarkable turnaround for the Liberals, who, at the beginning of the year, appeared doomed to defeat.
Nearly every poll released last year and into the start of this one showed the Conservatives, under leader Pierre Poilievre, leading the Liberals by some 20 points. Now, here at the official Conservative watch party at the Rogers Centre in Ottawa, Poilievre’s supporters drowned their sorrows by a cash bar, while a few others huddled around TV sets and held out hope for a late victory.
The Liberals have run Canada since Justin Trudeau became prime minister a decade ago, but their time in power has been beset by soaring inflation during Covid, an affordability crisis, stagnating income, and high unemployment. Over that 10-year span, the Canadian economy has grown by just 1.4 percent.
Poilievre, a gifted speaker and shrewd operator who was first elected to parliament in 2004 at age 25, appeared all but destined to become prime minister while running on a campaign that prioritized housing, affordability, and fighting crime. The Liberals, meanwhile, were disorganized, deeply unpopular, wedded to a much-hated carbon tax they implemented in 2019, and headed toward what many believed would be one of the worst defeats in Canadian history. Now, Mark Carney is victorious while Poilievre is projected to have lost his seat in the parliament.
So why did Poilievre and his Conservatives lose? Who’s to blame for this catastrophe for the Canadian right? How does a party and its leader blow such a massive lead in such a quick time span?
Let’s take it step by step.